Premarket Prep GBPNZD 06042020

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD – Week 23 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Strong 2nd bar down on Dai­ly break­ing week­ly demand
• H4 Bear Engulf fol­lowed with some con­ges­tion down to W1-C‑D 1.95345
• Could be some redis­tri­b­u­tion shown on M30 or poten­tial phase 1
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Trad­ing below PVAL
  • HK with­in bounds but trad­ed low­er, ses­sion high only 60 pips to LN PVAL stay­ing below M30-C‑S 1.95769

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Took out W1 demand but still trad­ing with­in W1/D1 QLo

Sen­ti­ment — Slight­ly Bearish

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• M30-C‑S 1.95769
• H4-C‑S 1.96402 NEW

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.95345
• H4-C‑D 1.94816

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: Time-based stop
  • Option 2: Tar­get hit (SL (103/4) 26 pips + spread or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered with­in 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • Cut off look­ing for trades at 11:15
  • Entry on TPO break of IB
  • Ear­ly entry with price action con­fir­ma­tion at 
    • H4 con­ter­mi­nous
    • Open far from val­ue, antic­i­pat­ing a move back to val­ue using an engulf­ing + sub­se­quent break of TPO
  • Min. X2 R/R
  • Use TPO con­fir­ma­tion or inval­i­da­tion for direc­tion­al deci­sions by look­ing for in con­junc­tion with H4 con­ter­mi­nous lines
    • TPO exten­sion with a sus­tained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO exten­sion with failed auc­tion (return to IB)
    • How this direc­tion of TPO exten­sion relates to Val­ue Area open sentiment