Premarket Prep GBPNZD 02152021

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 7 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• W1 Bull Engulf clos­ing above W1 QLo negat­ing any low­er time frame QHi

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Arrival at D1 QHi with some reac­tion, trad­ing with­in D1-C‑S 1.91538 (D1 RBR bull engulf with longer sell­ing wick turned this lev­el into demand D1-C‑D 1.91538)
  • H4 Bear Engulf, price above H4 VWAP
  • Pre­mar­ket: No fol­low-through on the H4 bear engulf instead a close with­in new­ly formed supply
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 3 day brack­et although swings are wider with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in value
  • ADR: 1101
  • ASR: 868
    • 22
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.92426
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.90960

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • ADR 0.5 Low at LTF demand at VAL and D1-C‑D 1.91538
  • LTF sup­ply at Friday’s high
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.1xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Very close prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge so we might see a val­ue accep­tance. How­ev­er, due to larg­er time frame sen­ti­ment we could see a move higher.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Close above W1 QLo, mul­ti­ple tests of D1 sup­ply and thus D1 QHi
  • Pre­ferred: 2nd chance entry (test­ing val­ue) on Bull Engulf formed pre­mar­ket with a close above val­ue, IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing ouit over­head supply. 
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: near-prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge, D1 pull­back to new­ly formed demand
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly Accep­tance and quick follow-through
  • Con: larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment, ADR 0.5 low and D1 C‑dem at VAL

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.91149
• W1-C‑S 1.90631

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.91538
• D1-C‑D 1.90495
• MN-C‑D 1.89745

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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