Premarket Prep GBPNZD 02102021

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 6 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in last week’s Bull Engulf with long buy­ing wick
• Still trad­ing with­in W1 QLo

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • After reac­tion off D1-C‑S 1.91538 there was a pull­back to D1-C-D1.89878 after a bull engulf was cre­at­ed giv­ing new demand at D1-C‑D 1.90495
  • Mid D1 swing
  • H4 Bull Engulf formed at D1 C‑dem with con­se­quent move high­er although leav­ing behind some sell­ing wicks and cre­at­ing a base at H4-C‑D 1.90635 BASE. Price arrived at H4 QHi and H4-C‑S 1.91149
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed as a spin­ning top with slight­ly longer buy­ing wick at H4-C‑S 1.91149
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2 day brack­et with yesterday’s val­ue area being much wider
  • ADR: 1137
  • ASR: 868
    • 22
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.90918
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.89946

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.90635 BASE­be­low VAH, D1-C‑D 1.90495 with­in val­ue below POC, plus large LTF demand between VAH and D1 C‑dem
  • H4-C‑S 1.91149 at H4 Qhi, D1-C‑S 1.91538 just above it
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.3xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. With H4 push­ing high­er and an open mod­er­ate imbal­ance above val­ue we could expect a push high­er. Although we have reached H4 QHi and sup­ply we coils see some push back.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: W1 Bear Engulf, price reach­ing H4 QHi and over­head supply
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish Price action rever­sal prefer­ably with­in IB fol­lowed by exten­sion down, accept­ing val­ue with rota­tion through. Oth­er­wise a failed auc­tion before reversing.
  • Con: D1 D‑dem at POC with­in val­ue although a retrace­ment to H4-C‑D 1.90635 BASE might be in favor of the direction. 
• Hypo 2 — Trend continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 ral­ly look­ing bull­ish although some­what slow­ing down. W1 hav­ing retraced pre­vi­ous bear engulf with very long buy­ing wick indi­cat­ing more buy­ers are still present. 
  • Pre­ferred: Bull­ish price action with momen­tum IB exten­sion up fol­lowed by a sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out supply.
  • Con: due to the wide nature of the sup­ply we could see a lot of push back and thus a low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.91538
• H4-C‑S 1.91149
• W1-C‑S 1.90631

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.90635 BASE
• D1-C‑D 1.89878
• MN-C‑D 1.89745

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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