10 Feb Premarket Prep GBPNZD 02102021
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Only take trades according to a hypo unless there are multiple conditions met
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Price is trading within last week’s Bull Engulf with long buying wick
- Still trading within W1 QLo
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- After reaction off D1-C‑S 1.91538 there was a pullback to D1-C-D1.89878 after a bull engulf was created giving new demand at D1-C‑D 1.90495
- Mid D1 swing
- H4 Bull Engulf formed at D1 C‑dem with consequent move higher although leaving behind some selling wicks and creating a base at H4-C‑D 1.90635 BASE. Price arrived at H4 QHi and H4-C‑S 1.91149
- Premarket: H4 closed as a spinning top with slightly longer buying wick at H4-C‑S 1.91149
- Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
- Market Profile
- 2 day bracket with yesterday’s value area being much wider
- ADR: 1137
- ASR: 868
- 22
- Day
- Yesterday’s High 1.90918
- Yesterday’s Low 1.89946
Sentiment
- Locations
- H4-C‑D 1.90635 BASEbelow VAH, D1-C‑D 1.90495 within value below POC, plus large LTF demand between VAH and D1 C‑dem
- H4-C‑S 1.91149 at H4 Qhi, D1-C‑S 1.91538 just above it
- Sentiment
- LN open
- Above Value, Outside Range
- Open distance to value
- 0.3xASR
- Narrative
- Moderate Imbalance. With H4 pushing higher and an open moderate imbalance above value we could expect a push higher. Although we have reached H4 QHi and supply we coils see some push back.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- 4
- Hypo 1 — Swing Reversal
- Narrative: W1 Bear Engulf, price reaching H4 QHi and overhead supply
- Preferred: Bearish Price action reversal preferably within IB followed by extension down, accepting value with rotation through. Otherwise a failed auction before reversing.
- Con: D1 D‑dem at POC within value although a retracement to H4-C‑D 1.90635 BASE might be in favor of the direction.
- Hypo 2 — Trend continuation
- Narrative: H4 rally looking bullish although somewhat slowing down. W1 having retraced previous bear engulf with very long buying wick indicating more buyers are still present.
- Preferred: Bullish price action with momentum IB extension up followed by a sustained auction taking out supply.
- Con: due to the wide nature of the supply we could see a lot of push back and thus a low/medium initiative activity day.
Additional notes
- N.A.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- D1-C‑S 1.91538
- H4-C‑S 1.91149
- W1-C‑S 1.90631
ZOIs for Possible Long
- H4-C‑D 1.90635 BASE
- D1-C‑D 1.89878
- MN-C‑D 1.89745
Mindful Trading
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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