Premarket Prep GBPNZD 02092021

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 6 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing below last week’s Bull Engulf with long buy­ing wick
• Still trad­ing with­in W1 QLo

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 trad­ed low­er reach­ing D1-C‑D 1.89878 with some reaction
  • H4 Three Inside Down (at W1-C‑S 1.90661) with fol­low-through and cur­rent­ly made some demand above D1 C‑dem (although anoth­er H4 Three Out­side Down is formed with­in demand). Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 4 still in progress.
  • Mid D1/H4 swing
  • Pre­mar­ket H4-C‑D 1.90182 was made through bull engulf
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below Friday’s val­ue area
  • ADR: 1129
  • ASR: 850
    • 22
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.90782
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.89916

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • W1-C‑S 1.90661 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.2xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Due to trade loca­tion being at D1 C‑dem and new­ly formed H4 bull engulf giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.90182 (just took out H4 sup­ply) we could see a move up and accept val­ue. Although due to no clear rever­sal on D1 we could actu­al­ly see a test of val­ue before a con­tin­u­a­tion down. Open sen­ti­ment speaks to the latter.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: New­ly formed H4 bull engulf at D1 C‑dem
  • Pre­ferred: Retest of H4-C‑D 1.90182 before con­tin­u­ing high­er, accept­ing val­ue ear­ly with quick follow-through.
  • Con: W1 c‑sup at VAH, val­ue very tight
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 phase 4 pos­si­bly still in play
  • Pre­ferred: test­ing val­ue with a fail­ure to accept, price action rever­sal, failed auc­tion or IB exten­sion down. 
  • Con: new­ly formed H4 bull engulf

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.91538
• H4-C‑S 1.91149
• W1-C‑S 1.90631

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.90182 
• D1-C‑D 1.89878
• MN-C‑D 1.89745

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay but have to leave for a meet­ing into the session.

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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