Premarket Prep GBPNZD 02082021

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 6 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• MN Morn­ing Star com­plet­ed last month with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last month’s body
• W1 Bull Engulf at MN-C‑D 1.89745 with a RBR of which the base has been retraced to and exceed­ed below test­ing MN demand for a 2nd time and price is cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last week’s body with a devel­op­ing long buy­ing wick (but we still need today to close for a confirmation)
  • Key point would be tak­en out sup­ply at W1 Sup­ply End 1.92156 (W1-C‑S 1.90631)
  • Price is trad­ing with­in W1 QLo (no close above yet)

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Inside bar with long sell­ing wick cre­at­ed after react­ing off W1 QLo . D1-C‑S 1.91538
  • Some fol­low-through after the big H4 Bear Engulf but a Bull Engulf was formed dur­ing Asia (trad­ed sige­ways most­ly) and con­se­quent Inside Bar with longer buy­ing wick (pos­si­ble RBR)
  • Mid H4 swing
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
• Mar­ket Profile
  •  Large val­ue area cre­at­ed on Thurs­day as part of a 2‑day brack­et with Fri­day fiend 1xADR above 
  • ADR: 1215
  • ASR: 869
    • 22
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.91749
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.90457

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.91149 with­in val­ue above VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.3xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. With a H4 Bull Engulf and pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion through RBR we could see a move high­er. H4 and D1 are both up but we are trad­ing at a W1 C‑up so a move high­er (if any) should be strong. With a rejec­tion of  H4 QHi and con­se­quent move down and W1 C‑sup near­by we might just see a move down as it would be in line with the open sentiment. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment and H4 c‑sup above VAL we might see a retest of this level.
  • Pre­ferred: IB mov­ing high­er test­ing VAL before a price action con­firm­ing a rever­sal fol­lowed by IB exten­sion down. A failed auc­tion would be pos­si­ble as well. Alter­na­tive could be IB tak­ing out LTF demand and exten­sion down (momen­tum) with sus­tained auction. 
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time frame some­what bull­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance and quick follow-through

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.91538
• H4-C‑S 1.91149
• W1-C‑S 1.90631

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.89878
• MN-C‑D 1.89745

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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