Premarket Prep GBPNZD 01182021

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 3 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above W1-C-SD 1.90104

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price trad­ing above D1-C‑D 1.89777 BASE, mid D1 swing
  • H4 Bear Engulf formed at  D1-C‑S 1.90528 with­in H4 QHi
    • Con­se­quent­ly no fol­low-through instead H4 closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar premarket
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed on top of pre­vi­ous although still with­in over­all range
  • ADR: 1208
  • ASR: 909
    • 24
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.90770
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.89437

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.91267 at ADR 0.5 high, ADR exhaus­tion above
  • W1-C-SD 1.90104 at VAH and ADR 0.5 low
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.7xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbalance. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • D1 mid swing, price trad­ing bull­ish with­in H4 QHi close to tak­ing out H4 supply
  • Pre­ferred: Bull­ish price action with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auction.
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion 
  • Pre­ferred: IB takes out H4 sup­ply hit­ting inter­fer­ence at D1- C‑sup, Price action con­firm­ing rever­sal with­in IB (or IB exten­sion up with failed auc­tion) and con­se­quent quick fol­low-through down.
  • Mon­i­tor for tranis­tion to a Swing Rever­sal through val­ue acceptance
  • Con: tak­ing out of H4 demand
• Hypo 3 — Return to Value
  • A move down to VAH, W1 C‑dem level
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price aci­ton con­firm­ing a rever­sal at VAH, failed auction

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.91267
• D1-C‑S 1.90528
• W1-C-SD 1.90104

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C-SD 1.90104
• D1-C‑D 1.89777 BASE

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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