Premarket Prep GBPNZD 01152021

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 2 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a momen­tum play.

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Retrac­ing pre­vi­ous week’s move down test­ing W1 supply

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Inside bar with slight­ly longer buy­ing wick. Mid D1 Q swing
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion with Bear Engulf and no fol­low-through. Instead Three Inside Up clos­ing with­in over­head sup­ply H4-C‑S 1.89784 near W1-C‑S 1.90104 and H4 QHi.
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3 or redis­tri­b­u­tion (less like­ly although still possible)
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed as an Inside Bar
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below pre­vi­ous day’s val­ue (kin­da like a head and shoulders 🙂
  • ADR: 1303
  • ASR: 937
    • 25
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.90140
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.89126

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.89784 at VAH
  • W1-C‑S 1.90104 just above range
  • H4-C‑D 1.89281 below ses­sion range
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Due to near prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge plus over­head sup­ply we might see a move down. Although H4 VWAP is still in UT so we might run into some push­back. Also no con­firmed rever­sal on D1 either. Let pro­file and price action guide as always.
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.2xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance with quick follow-through
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action formed at VAH, IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auc­tion pos­si­bly tak­ing out H4 sup­ply. Prob­a­bly low/medium ini­tia­tive day due to over­head supply. 
• Hypo 3 — Sin­gle Print Fade / Failed Auction
  • Pre­ferred: Move high­er into sup­ply fail­ing to sus­tain auc­tion (LTF fal­ter­ing) fol­lowed by pos­si­ble TPO struc­ture buildup and price action rever­sal. Pos­si­bly tak­ing out a sin­gle print although trad­ing direct­ly into sup­ply I con­sid­er less like­ly for sinlge prints to get formed. Pos­si­ble too wide IB range and fake out extension. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1.90104
• H4-C‑S 1.89786

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.89281
• D1-C‑D 1.87573
• W1-C‑D 1.85877

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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