Premarket Prep GBPNZD 01132021

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 2 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a momen­tum play.

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Retrac­ing pre­vi­ous week’s down move but still with­in MN demand (although near­ing c‑line)

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Phase 2 with yes­ter­day leav­ing behind a longer sell­ing wick
  • H4 Bear Engulf formed after near­ing W1-C‑S 1.90104 (1st test) giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.89357 with lit­tle fol­low-through. Price trad­ed from with­in H4 QHi to close below with a con­se­quent Bull Engulf was formed test­ing over­head sup­ply again giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.89281.
  • H4 closed high­er into over­head sup­ply premarket
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Pro­files expand­ing (up) with yesterday’s val­ue wider than usu­al (60+ pips)
  • ADR: 1279
  • ASR: 953
    • 25
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.89930
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.88396

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.89281 with­in value
  • H4-C‑D 1.88629 below val­ue, with­in range
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A. 
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Bal­anced. Although with a pos­si­ble D1 phase 2 we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move as H4 closed deep­er into sup­ply as well. If we take out new­ly formed H4 demand this would negate the bal­anc­ing to bull­ish premise. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Play off near­by LTF SD and ADR levels.
• Hypo 2 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action (as we are trad­ing direct­ly into sup­ply), IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out H4 supply.
  • Con: W1 C‑sup above
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Pre­ferred: Strong close with­in demand, IB exten­sion down tak­ing out demand.
• Hypo 4 — Swing Reversal
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up with price action rever­sal fail­ing auc­tion and quick follow-through

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1.90104
• H4-C‑S 1.89357

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.88629
• D1-C‑D 1.87573
• W1-C‑D 1.85877

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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