NY Premarket Prep WTI Crude 20210616

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s NY ses­sion for WTI Crude. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

WTI Crude 2021 Week 24 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in pre-COVID MN supply
• Price trad­ing above last week’s body and range near­ing W1-C‑S 73.340

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • H4 Bear­ish Inside Bar tran­si­tion to H4 Three Inside Down giv­ing H4-C‑S 72.517right above NY open
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Flim­sy upslop­ing bracket
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1268
  • ASR: 1095
    • 27
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 72.483
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 70.801

Sen­ti­ment

• NY open
  • Above Val­ue, slight­ly Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.26xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Slight gap up com­ing from a H4 Three Inside Down. Pos­si­bil­i­ty for a VAA. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 
  • Val­ue Accep­tance, ear­ly accep­tance and quick follow-through
• Hypo 2
  • Return to Val­ue, VAH Reversal 
• Hypo 3
  • Failed Auc­tion Long after val­ue rotation
• Hypo 4 
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Up, pos­si­ble late-sus­tained auc­tion entry
• Hypo 5
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Down pos­si­ble tar­get H4 demand
• Hypo 6 
  • Auc­tion Fade to hypo 4

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect
• EIA Inven­to­ries
• Fed inter­est rate

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 73.340
• D1-C‑S 71.500

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 71.037
• D1-C‑D 70

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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