NY Premarket Prep WTI Crude 20210615

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for WTI Crude. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

WTI Crude 2021 Week 24 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body and range near­ing W1-C‑S 73.340

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Yes­ter­day closed as a doji with longer sell­ing wick but Lon­don already made a HH trad­ing with­in D1-C‑S 71.50.
  • H4 RBR at H4 VWAP in UT giv­ing H4-C‑D 71.037
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2 over­lap­ping values
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1193
  • ASR: 1172
    • 29
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 71.762
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 70.712

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 71.037 at VAL
  • D1-C‑S 71.50 with­in value
• Sen­ti­ment
  • NY open
    • Open with­in val­ue at VAH
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed high­er from H4 demand
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. How­ev­er, H4 Con­tin­ued clos­ing high­er from H4 demand and made HH dur­ing Lon­don. A M30 Three Inside Down before NY open (which was right at VAH)
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Sus­tained Auc­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Sup­ply, M30 Three Inside Down permarket,
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auc­tion (taper prof­it tar­get due to a wide value)
  • Con: D1 Bull­ish narrative
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up / Sus­tained Auc­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1/W1 Bull­ish narrative
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion UP, sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out D1 demand
  • Con: Open with­in val­ue, ADR near­ly exhausted
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Fail­ure / Failed Auction
  • Pre­ferred: price extends above and fails to find busi­ness. ADR exhaus­tion right above.
• Hypo 4 — Auc­tion Fade
  • Nar­ra­tive: Hypo 2 plays out, D1 Sup­ply Pop gives an LTF reac­tion. Exhausts ADR
  • Pre­ferred: TPO struc­ture and PA rever­sal, tar­get to IB edge
  • Con: D1 Bull­ish narrative
• Hypo 5 — Auc­tion Fade
  • Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1, pos­si­ble rever­sal at H4 demand at VAL 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 73.340
• D1-C‑S 71.500

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 71.037
• D1-C‑D 70

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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