15 Jun NY Premarket Prep WTI Crude 20210615
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for WTI Crude. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Price trading above last week’s body and range nearing W1-C‑S 73.340
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- Yesterday closed as a doji with longer selling wick but London already made a HH trading within D1-C‑S 71.50.
- H4 RBR at H4 VWAP in UT giving H4-C‑D 71.037
- Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
- Prevailing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
- Market Profile
- 2 overlapping values
- Daily Range
- ADR: 1193
- ASR: 1172
- 29
- Day
- Yesterday’s High 71.762
- Yesterday’s Low 70.712
Sentiment
- Locations
- H4-C‑D 71.037 at VAL
- D1-C‑S 71.50 within value
- Sentiment
- NY open
- Open within value at VAH
- Open distance to value
- N.A.
- Premarket
- H4 closed higher from H4 demand
- Narrative
- Balancing Market. However, H4 Continued closing higher from H4 demand and made HH during London. A M30 Three Inside Down before NY open (which was right at VAH)
- NY open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- 3
- Hypo 1 — Sustained Auction Down
- Narrative: D1 Supply, M30 Three Inside Down permarket,
- Preferred: IB extension down, sustained auction (taper profit target due to a wide value)
- Con: D1 Bullish narrative
- Hypo 2 — Value Rejection Up / Sustained Auction Up
- Narrative: D1/W1 Bullish narrative
- Preferred: IB extension UP, sustained auction taking out D1 demand
- Con: Open within value, ADR nearly exhausted
- Hypo 3 — Value Rejection Failure / Failed Auction
- Preferred: price extends above and fails to find business. ADR exhaustion right above.
- Hypo 4 — Auction Fade
- Narrative: Hypo 2 plays out, D1 Supply Pop gives an LTF reaction. Exhausts ADR
- Preferred: TPO structure and PA reversal, target to IB edge
- Con: D1 Bullish narrative
- Hypo 5 — Auction Fade
- Variation to Hypo 1, possible reversal at H4 demand at VAL
Additional notes
- Capital Preservation Rule in effect
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- W1-C‑S 73.340
- D1-C‑S 71.500
ZOIs for Possible Long
- H4-C‑D 71.037
- D1-C‑D 70
Mindful Trading (lack of sleep?)
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- Risk Management
- Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2.
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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