NY Premarket Prep WTI Crude 20210614

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for WTI Crude. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

WTI Crude 2021 Week 24 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing above last week’s body and range with no reac­tion from sup­ply (yet)

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 demand cre­at­ed and con­tin­ued high­er trad­ing at D1-C‑S 71.50
  • H4 trad­ed high­er form­ing an invert­ed hammer
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the flim­sy 3‑day bracket
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1272
  • ASR: 1130
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 71.221
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 69.651

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 71.300 above val­ue near LTF demand
• Sen­ti­ment
  • NY open
    • ABove Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.41xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Price closed as an Invert­ed Hammer
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Gap up. Although no mean rever­sion cri­te­ria ful­filled. Trad­ing right into D1 sup­ply there could be som reaction.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Failed Auction
  • Nar­ra­tive: Trad­ing right into D1/W1 supply
  • Pre­ferred: Price con­tin­ues high­er and revers­es to fail auc­tion for PNYC.
  • Con: Trend is up 2/3 
• Hypo 2 — Auc­tion Fade
  • Nar­ra­tive: Price trades high­er off IB exten­sion up hit­ting W1 Sup­ply before reversing
  • Pre­ferred: TPO struc­ture, PA rever­sal, tar­get IB edge
  • Con: Trend is up 2/3 
• Hypo 3 — Return to Val­ue, failed auction
  • Nar­ra­tive: Bull­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Price extends below IB before a rever­sal to fail auction
  • Con: N.A.
• Hypo 4 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Bull­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up, sus­tained auc­tion to W1 Sup­ply, pos­si­ble late-sus­tained auc­tion entry.
• Hypo 5 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: trad­ing at MN/W1/D1 Supply
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly accep­tance and rotation
  • Con: Trend is up 2/3

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 73.340
• D1-C‑S 71.500

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15591.00

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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