NY Premarket Prep Gold 20210616

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s NY ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 24 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below W1 Three Out­side Down
• Price com­ing from W1/D1 QHi Rejec­tion cur­rent­ly trad­ing mid swing

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 closed low­er with­in the pre­ced­ing D1 Hammer’s range with­out mak­ing a LL trad­ing deep­er with­in D1 Demand
  • Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 4
  • H4 broke low­er from sup­ply H4-C‑S 1864.580 arrival at OLD H4 demand and formed a H4 Bear Engulf
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping values
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 24170
  • ASR: 13222
    • 331
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1869.070
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1851.560

Sen­ti­ment

• NY open
  • With­in Value
• Open dis­tance to value
  • N.A.
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. H4 con­sol­i­dat­ed and closed as a Bear Engulf above OLD H4 demand. Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 4 and W1 Three Inside Down continuation. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1
  • Val­ue Rejec­tion Up Fail­ure, Failed Auc­tion short prob­ing to the upside

• Hypo 2
  • Val­ue Rejec­tion Down, sus­tained auc­tion, pos­si­ble late-sus­tained auc­tion entry, mon­i­tor for D1 Demand get­ting popped
• Hypo 3 
  •  Auc­tion Fade, Near D1 Demand End back to IB edge
• Hypo 4
  • Val­ue Rejec­tion Down Fail­ure, Failed Auc­tion prob­ing to the downside

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect
• FOMC lat­er on

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.863
• H4-C‑S 1864.580

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1853.459
• D1-C‑D 1825.990

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram