NY Premarket Prep Gold 20210615

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s NY ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 24 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last week’s body and range as a con­tin­u­a­tion to W1 Three Out­side Down

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear Engulf and con­tin­u­a­tion, pos­si­ble D1 Phase 4 although arrived at D1 200MA. Trad­ing mid D1 swing.
  • H4 Phase 4 arriv­ing at H4-C‑D 1853.368 OLD with no reac­tion (yet)
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below the brack­et­ing range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22774
  • ASR: 13312
    • 285
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1902.930
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1874.420

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1853.459 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • NY open
    • Open with­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion con­tin­ued. Price trad­ing mid H4 swing.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. D1 Is trad­ing below yesterday’s body but with­in range.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up Fail­ure  / Auc­tion Fade / Failed Auction
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bear­ish Narrative
  • Pre­ferred: Close above VAH coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion (tech­ni­cal­ly reject­ing val­ue). Fail­ure to sus­tain auc­tion for a pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion. Auc­tion Fade if price extends higher.
  • Con: The ini­tial move would have tak­en out H4 supply
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down / Sus­tained Auc­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bear­ish narrative
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion, pos­si­ble late-sus­tained auc­tion entry
  • Con: Trad­ing at VAH, H1-C‑D 1853.459 OLD at VAL 
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down Fail­ure / Auc­tion Fade pos­si­bly at H4 demand at VAL
• Hypo 4 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up / Sus­tained Auc­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble break from H4 consolidation
  • Pre­ferred: Strong close above VAH coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion, pos­si­ble late-sus­tained auc­tion entry
  • Con: D1 Bear­ish Narrative.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.863

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1853.459
• D1-C‑D 1825.990

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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