NY Premarket Prep Gold 20210614

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 24 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last week’s body and range as a con­tin­u­a­tion to W1 Three Out­side Down

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear Engulf and con­tin­u­a­tion, pos­si­ble D1 Phase 4 although arrived at D1 200MA
  • H4 Phase 4 arriv­ing at H4-C‑D 1853.368 OLD with no reac­tion (yet)
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below the brack­et­ing range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22774
  • ASR: 11388
    • 285
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1902.930
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1874.420

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • W1-C‑S 1888.863 above value
• Sen­ti­ment
  • NY open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 2.12xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Con­tin­u­a­tion to H4 Phase 4 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Gap down. Large imbal­ance exhaust­ing ADR dur­ing Lon­don and price is trad­ing near D1 200MA. Price tried tak­ing out old H4 demand but has not suc­ceed­ed (yet).
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, trad­ing near D1 200MA and old H4 demand, ADR exhaust­ed, trend is still up 2/3, pos­si­ble PNYC reversal
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA extend­ing IB, sus­tained auc­tion to val­ue edge (quite far pos­si­bly taper expec­ta­tion to LTF sup­plies nearby)
  • Pre­ferred 2: Exten­sion below IB to failed auc­tion for PNYC reversal
  • Con: H4 Phase 4, pos­si­ble start of D1 Phase 4
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bear­ish nar­ra­tive reject­ing D1 QHi, no arrival at D1 QLo (yet), ADR got exhaust­ed pos­si­ble uni­di­rec­tion­al day, 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auc­tion to D1 QLo, pos­si­ble D1 demand
  • Pre­ferred 2: C TPO extends above IB before D fails the auction
  • Con: Open sen­ti­ment, pos­si­bly hop­ping on the train late (near­ing D1 QLo).
• Hypo 3 — Auc­tion Fade
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1 and 2
  • Pre­ferred: Hypo 1 plays out, Return to Val­ue, PA rever­sal, tar­get to IB edge
  • Pre­ferred 2: Hypo 2 plays out hit­ting D1 QLo (or D1 demand), builds struc­ture,  fade the auc­tion to IB edge.
  • Con: N.A.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1888.863

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1825.990

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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