NY Premarket Prep Gold 20210609

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 23 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body at W1-C‑S 1890.750

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Closed as a Bear­ish Inside bar but with a longer buy­ing wick after react­ing off D1-C‑S 1899.150 (back trad­ing with­in D1 QHi)
  • Price trad­ing above D1-C‑D 1890.750 (W1 c‑sup)
  • H4 Bear Engulf at pre­vi­ous sup­ply and H4 QHi giv­ing H4-C‑S 1892.583
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 3‑day brack­et­ing range although slop­ing higher
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 24529
  • ASR: 11649
    • 291
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1903.490
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1883.890

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1892.583 with­in value
  • D1-C‑S 1899.150 Above val­ue, with­in range below ASR high 
  • D1-C‑D 1890.750 below value
• Sen­ti­ment
  • NY open
    • With­in value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Con­tin­u­a­tion to the H4 Bear Engulf clos­ing above H4 VWAP
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. 3‑day over­lap­ping val­ues form­ing a brack­et although slop­ing slight­ly high­er. Plus the open inside there and near­by Sup­ply above val­ue there could be a val­ue rejec­tion fail­ure. If price can hold above VAH in a sus­tained auc­tion there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion of the rejec­tion in line with a pos­si­ble D1 RBR (although yes­ter­day closed as a Bear­ish Inside Bar). Trend is still up which could pro­vide a con­tin­u­a­tion higher. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket / Val­ue Rejec­tion Failure
  • Nar­ra­tive: brack­et, open sen­ti­ment, near­by sup­ply above and demand below value
  • Pre­ferred: Exten­sion above or below val­ue hit­ting D1 C‑sup or D1 c‑dem (in case of a move low­er), PA rever­sal fail­ing the auc­tion or per­haps when over-extend­ed a pos­si­bil­i­ty to fade the auction.
  • Con: Trend is up
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: W1/D1 sup­ply at QHi, Pos­si­ble H4 phase 3, D1 Bear­ish Inside Bar (although with longer buy­ing wick), 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong close below VAL coin­cid­ing with an IB exten­sion, pro­file mak­ing LLs and price clos­ing below IB in a sus­tained move. 
  • Con: huge demand below
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble D1 RBR, Trend is up 2 / 3, 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong close above VAH coin­cid­ing with an IB exten­sion, pro­file mak­ing HHs and price clos­ing above IB in a sus­tained move.
  • Con: trad­ing right into W1/D1 Sup­ply, pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3,

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1899.150

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1890.750

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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