Play: Trend Continuation / Return to Value
#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading #tradingreview #priceaction #chartreview #GBPNZD #missedtrade
These are trades I could have taken but for some reason I did not. This could be due to me not paying attention or simply not feeling like trading. This is usually the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, personal issues, etc.
Reason for missing the trade (explain the narrative)
I initially was stalking the trade but then didn’t want to take it from inside IB and waited for more orderflow confluence. When that finally came through an extension down in D I could have gone with the trade based on the extension alone. I considered a pullback to DPOC and near newly developed M30 supply would be a good entry point for a 2nd Chance Entry and almost put a Sell Limit Order. Sadly, I hesitated due to the price being mid swing on M30/H4. Then I got disturbed by a phone call and when coming back I saw a potentially late-sustained auction entry but again I hesitated.
‘Reasons’ for hesitating:
- Price being mid swing
- Got disturbed by a work call
- Expecting (and got biased most likely) to see a bit more of a bounce from D1 Demand Base level, especially after some H4 supply got taken out, before continuing down (would have also been in line with H4 VWAP in UT BD to CAR)
- Wide M30 Demand underneath kinda made me less eager to trade right into
Even though my reading of price action and orderflow was in line with D1 returning to a D1 Demand Base level (suggesting a potential continuation). H4 was not showing a great effort to reverse either. Missed out on a great trade here. The D1 Three Inside Down also suggested a quicker follow-through to the move as a test of newly developed supply could suggest a possible failure to continue the move.
TAGS: D1 Three Inside Down, Return to Base, D1 Demand Base, Moderate to Large Imbalance, Reversal within IB, 2nd Chance Entry, Late-Sustained Auction Entry, Below Value, Outside Range, H4 Demand Popped,
What would have been the Entry?
Trade 1a
DTTZ: 1st
Entry Method: M30 Bearish Inside Bar from within IB without extension then monitor for a continuation (in this case DBD)
Trade 1b
DTTZ: 1st
Entry Method: 2nd Chance Entry after D TPO had extended below there was a pullback to DPOC and newly formed M30 supply
Trade 2c
DTTZ: 2nd DTTZ
Entry Method: Late-Sustained Auction Entries
How was the SL placement and sizing?
Trade 1a
SL placement: Perfect as a standard sized SL would have been way above the formation
Trade 1b
SL placement: Perfect as a standard sized SL would have been way above the formation
Trade 1c
SL placement: not the worst but it is cutting through the formation. I think with using IB edge a return and close within IB would have negated this trade so it was okay.
How was the profit target?
Trade 1a, 1b
Profit target: Expecting a continuation taking out H4 demand in a sustained auction the profit target would have been good.
Trade 1c
Profit target: Buffer trade would have been enough
What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?
Trade 1a
Exit: 0.8R on M30/M15 Bull Engulf, although due to the D1 narrative and H4 Demand getting popped I could have let it go on longer. Trade hit 2R in overlap noise
Trade 1b
Exit: 0.6R and the rest same as 1a
Trade 1c
Exit: 0.8R to over 1R in overlap noise
What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?
Trade 1a
Exit: 1.5R, Overlap noise 2.2R
Trade 1b
Exit: 1.3R, overlap noise 2R
Trade 1c
Exit: 0.8R, overlap noise 1.5R
Extra Observations
Again, when H4 demand got popped there was a M30 reversal (albeit flimsy) before continuing the move down.
Premarket prep on the day
Daily Report Card on the day