Missed Trade GBPNZD 20210525

25 May Missed Trade GBPNZD 20210525

Play: Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Return to Value

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #GBPNZD #missed­trade

These are trades I could have tak­en but for some rea­son I did not. This could be due to me not pay­ing atten­tion or sim­ply not feel­ing like trad­ing. This is usu­al­ly the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, per­son­al issues, etc.

Rea­son for miss­ing the trade (explain the narrative)

I ini­tial­ly was stalk­ing the trade but then didn’t want to take it from inside IB and wait­ed for more order­flow con­flu­ence. When that final­ly came through an exten­sion down in D I could have gone with the trade based on the exten­sion alone. I con­sid­ered a pull­back to DPOC and near new­ly devel­oped M30 sup­ply would be a good entry point for a 2nd Chance Entry and almost put a Sell Lim­it Order. Sad­ly, I hes­i­tat­ed due to the price being mid swing on M30/H4. Then I got dis­turbed by a phone call and when com­ing back I saw a poten­tial­ly late-sus­tained auc­tion entry but again I hesitated. 

‘Rea­sons’ for hesitating:

• Price being mid swing
• Got dis­turbed by a work call
• Expect­ing (and got biased most like­ly) to see a bit more of a bounce from D1 Demand Base lev­el, espe­cial­ly after some H4 sup­ply got tak­en out, before con­tin­u­ing down (would have also been in line with H4 VWAP in UT BD to CAR)
• Wide M30 Demand under­neath kin­da made me less eager to trade right into

Even though my read­ing of price action and order­flow was in line with D1 return­ing to a D1 Demand Base lev­el (sug­gest­ing a poten­tial con­tin­u­a­tion). H4 was not show­ing a great effort to reverse either. Missed out on a great trade here. The D1 Three Inside Down also sug­gest­ed a quick­er fol­low-through to the move as a test of new­ly devel­oped sup­ply could sug­gest a pos­si­ble fail­ure to con­tin­ue the move. 

TAGS: D1 Three Inside Down, Return to Base, D1 Demand Base, Mod­er­ate to Large Imbal­ance, Rever­sal with­in IB, 2nd Chance Entry, Late-Sus­tained Auc­tion Entry, Below Val­ue, Out­side Range, H4 Demand Popped, 

What would have been the Entry?

Trade 1a

DTTZ: 1st

Entry Method: M30 Bear­ish Inside Bar from with­in IB with­out exten­sion then mon­i­tor for a con­tin­u­a­tion (in this case DBD)

Trade 1b

DTTZ: 1st

Entry Method: 2nd Chance Entry after D TPO had extend­ed below there was a pull­back to DPOC and new­ly formed M30 supply

Trade 2c

DTTZ: 2nd DTTZ

Entry Method: Late-Sus­tained Auc­tion Entries

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

Trade 1a

SL place­ment: Per­fect as a stan­dard sized SL would have been way above the formation

Trade 1b

SL place­ment: Per­fect as a stan­dard sized SL would have been way above the formation

Trade 1c

SL place­ment: not the worst but it is cut­ting through the for­ma­tion. I think with using IB edge a return and close with­in IB would have negat­ed this trade so it was okay. 

How was the prof­it target?

Trade 1a, 1b

Prof­it tar­get: Expect­ing a con­tin­u­a­tion tak­ing out H4 demand in a sus­tained auc­tion the prof­it tar­get would have been good. 

Trade 1c

Prof­it tar­get: Buffer trade would have been enough

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1a

Exit: 0.8R on M30/M15 Bull Engulf, although due to the D1 nar­ra­tive and H4 Demand get­ting popped I could have let it go on longer. Trade hit 2R in over­lap noise

Trade 1b

Exit: 0.6R and the rest same as 1a

Trade 1c

Exit: 0.8R to over 1R in over­lap noise

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1a

Exit: 1.5R, Over­lap noise 2.2R

Trade 1b

Exit: 1.3R, over­lap noise 2R

Trade 1c

Exit: 0.8R, over­lap noise 1.5R

Extra Obser­va­tions

Again, when H4 demand got popped there was a M30 rever­sal (albeit flim­sy) before con­tin­u­ing the move down.

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210525

Dai­ly Report Card on the day

How did I trade today? 20210525

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