How did I trade today? 20210614

Sum­ma­ry: Using PA tran­si­tions into Order­flow events

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• DAX — London
  • 1st DTTZ
    • IBR wide: 0.68xASR, price tra­versed 1xASR above VAH hit­ting 15800 then B closed as an Inside Bar
    • IB is a bit too wide for any momen­tum based plays. Failed Auc­tions would be preferred. 
    • E closed below IB with a longer sell­ing wick
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • F closed as a Bull Engulf and I con­sid­ered going in long on a Failed Auc­tion play but due to the H1 Bear Engulf and con­se­quent pos­si­ble base I let it go. Although in hind­sight I am think­ing that the H4 Bull Engulf in pre­mar­ket could have been a good con­flu­ence for the trade a well.
    • Pre­mar­ket PA si a fake out for DAX. It was not a good trad­ing idea and price tra­versed low­er clos­ing as a H4 Bear Engulf with long sell­ing wick. 

• GOLD — London
  • 1st DTTZ
    • Asia trad­ed low­er and Lon­don already closed below dur­ing IB (0.38xASR) near­ing the end of D1 demand.
    • D extend­ed below and took out D1/H4 demand before clos­ing with­in IB as a Bull­ish Inside Bar
    • Long 1857.60 SL 1855.67 TP 1861.580 (2R)
    • I took 1.5R due to being in a DD and hit­ting M15 Sup­ply at M15 VWAP in DT
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • F closed as a Bear­ish Inside Bar with con­tin­u­a­tion low­er in G and H made LLs clos­ing as a H4 con­tin­u­a­tion lower. 

• GOLD — NY
  • 1st DTTZ
    • C TPO extend­ed up over IB almost 2x IBR
    • D TPO made HHs and closed high­er. E made HHs as well leav­ing behind Sin­gle Prints in C. 
    • Stalk­ing a Sin­gle Print Fade. 4th TPO is build­ing and could pos­si­bly start tak­ing out sin­gle prints in C
    • F closed as a Three Inside Down and I wait­ed for a slight pull­back and I went short. 
      • Short 1863.620, SL 1867.560, TP 1855.945 (2R)
      • Price mean­dered around and did not take out the sin­gle prints. At trad­ing win­dow cut off I scratched the trade for ‑0.1R. 

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DAX — London

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 4 — Mean Reversion
  • I had not includ­ed this into my hypos

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

Price tra­versed high­er dur­ing IB after open­ing on a gap up ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria with­out extend­ing IB to the upside. What fol­lowed was a move down and exten­sion below dur­ing D TPO.

What hap­pened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

E closed below IB. F closed as a Bull Engulf with­in IB. Then G took it low­er again. H formed a Poor Low with E. 

What was the play of the day?

Mean Rever­sion Break of IB

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

I did not hypoth­e­size this one due to not rec­og­niz­ing the pos­si­bil­i­ty as an option. Equi­ties hav­ing an upward bias. Open sen­ti­ment not ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria although tra­versed dur­ing IB to it before reversing.

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was but I did not want to take it due to not hav­ing pre­pared for it but also being in a trade in Gold.

What could I have done better?

I did well

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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GOLD — London

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 QLo, trend is UP 2/3
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up (momen­tum) sus­tained auc­tion to VAL
  • Pre­ferred 2: Pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion in case of an exten­sion down pop­ping D1 demand
  • Con: D1/H4 Bear­ish nar­ra­tive, huge imbal­anc­ing pos­si­bil­i­ty for continuation
  • 100% cor­rect

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

A lit­tle DBD extend­ing below IB in C. When D extend­ed fur­ther pop­ping D1 demand it closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar fail­ing auction. 

What hap­pened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

F took it low­er through a Bear­ish Inside Bar and con­tin­u­a­tion lower.

What was the play of the day?

Mean Rever­sion through Failed Auction

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

I took the opportunity

DTTZ: 1st

Entry: M30 Bull­ish Inside Bar dur­ing E,Failing Auction

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion):  2.5R at IB high

What would a price action exit rule have done?

M15 Three Inside Down would have yield­ed 0.2R. But due to being in a DD and not want­i­ng to be a dick for a tick as well as hit­ting M15 Sup­ply at M16 VWAP in DT I decid­ed to take the trade off at 1.5R.

How was SL place­ment and Siz­ing (Was there a need for scaling)?

Good even though the SL was cut­ting through the wick this was okay due to being a FA play. 

What would time-based have done?

-1R hit­ting SL

What could I have done better?

I did well. I could have stalked the trade bet­ter due to kind of being a bit dis­tract­ed with fid­get­ing with my indi­ca­tors and FX syn­er­gy settings

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I felt good. No jumpi­ness or whatsoever.

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Gold — NY

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, trad­ing near D1 200MA and old H4 demand, ADR exhaust­ed, trend is still up 2/3, pos­si­ble PNYC reversal
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA extend­ing IB, sus­tained auc­tion to val­ue edge (quite far pos­si­bly taper expec­ta­tion to LTF sup­plies nearby)
  • Pre­ferred 2: Exten­sion below IB to failed auc­tion for PNYC reversal
  • Con: H4 Phase 4, pos­si­ble start of D1 Phase 4
  • 100% cor­rect
• Hypo 3 — Auc­tion Fade
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1 and 2
  • Pre­ferred: Hypo 1 plays out (mean rever­sion with exten­sion up), Return to Val­ue, PA rever­sal, tar­get to IB edge
  • Pre­ferred 2: Hypo 2 plays out hit­ting D1 QLo (or D1 demand), builds struc­ture,  fade the auc­tion to IB edge.
  • Con: N.A.
  • 90% cor­rect

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

Price extend­ed large­ly in C TPO before build­ing struc­ture in D, E and F form­ing a Three Out­side Down. 

What was the play of the day?

Mean Rever­sion to Auc­tion Fade

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty and I did take it. 

DTTZ: 1st

Entry: M30 Three Out­side Down, TPO struc­ture, mon­i­tor for Sin­gle Print Fade

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): 2.8R at IB high

What would a price action exit rule have done?

Time-based cut off took prece­dence and scratched at ‑0.1R

How was SL place­ment and Siz­ing (Was there a need for scaling)?

It was good although entry could have been bet­ter. Next time per­haps con­sid­er an entry of DPOC. I will review the crap out of this one for sure. Will make a sep­a­rate post on this. 

What would time-based have done?

-0.1R scratched

What could I have done better?

I could have got­ten a bet­ter entry using the Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick in E as a cue for a pos­si­ble tran­si­tion into a Three Out­side Down. I will review the crap out of this. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I felt good. Noth­ing to comment.

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did great here. I did not feel tired or any­thing. Did not feel jumpy. I did well today. 

What did I learn today?

I learned more about how to use PA tran­si­tion into an order­flow event. 

What’s one (or more) thing(s) I need to do more often?

Keep inves­ti­gat­ing ways to take trades. 

What’s one (or more) thing(s) I need to do less often?

Wor­ry about the out­come of one trade. I did well to remind myself of this. 1 trade doesn’t mean any­thing over the course of thou­sands of more trades.

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did well today.

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep DAX 20210614

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210614

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NY Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210614

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NY Pre­mar­ket Prep WTI Crude 20210614

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