How did I trade today? 20210607

Sum­ma­ry: Learn­ing one trade at a time. 

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • 13 trades by the end of the month
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

BAD Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3

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Summary

• GBPNZD (Lon­don session)
  • 1st DTTZ
    • A closed as a Bull Engulf but with a sell­ing wick (at M30 VWAP in DT) so some sell­ers are present. B closed as a Bear­ish Engulf­ing at M30 VWAP in DT.
    • Trend is up and price is mid H4/M30 swing so not the best trad­ing loca­tion here. Longs are favored due to trend being up and open sentiment. 
    • C formed a base and D a DBD extend­ing below accord­ing to Hypo 3
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • E closed slight­ly with­in IB and F closed slight­ly deep­er with a buy­ing wick. H1 Bull Engulf. M15 con­sol­i­da­tion and slight Bull Engulf fin­ish­er. Not the strongest also when look­ing at the buy­ing tail in E. Try­ing a long as per Hypo 1, mean reversion:
      • Long 1.96029 SL 1.95879 TP 1.96329
      • M15 Bear Engulf formed but no close with­in LTF demand could be a fake out. Let­ting the trade for anoth­er 15 min­utes but might get stopped out
      • G closed as a M30 Bear Engulf below IB and I took the trade off for ‑0.5R. 
      • H moved deep­er into IB and the trade would have reached 1.2R. H closed as a Bull Engulf and H4 Base.
      • Price would have reached 1.5R in over­lap noise.

• GOLD (NY session)
  • 1st DTTZ
    • LN trad­ed high­er. IB fol­lowed suit and trad­ed to W1/H4 Sup­ply. There is a LTF con­sol­i­da­tion at W1 Sup­ply which did not hold and price trad­ed high­er. H4 closed as a Three Out­side Up.
    • Looks like a sus­tained auc­tion. Each TPO mak­ing a HH. 

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GBPNZD (London session)

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA extend­ing above IB, sus­tained auc­tion to val­ue edge
  • Con: Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 4, pos­si­ble D1 DBD in the making
  • 90% cor­rect

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

Price extend­ed below in D then formed a Bull­ish Inside Bar in E.

What hap­pened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

F and G con­sol­i­dat­ed fur­ther even though G closed as a Bear Engulf it did not make a LL. H closed as a Bull Engulf and price tra­versed up to LTF Sup­ply near IB high.

What was the play of the day?

Mean Rever­sion Failed Auc­tion combo

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

I did take the oppor­tu­ni­ty although due to G clos­ing as a Bear Engulf I had tak­en the trade off for ‑0.6R. 

DTTZ: 2nd

Entry: M30 Bull­ish Inside Bar

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): 1.5R near IB high

What would a price action exit rule have done?

1R would have hit (cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule)

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Good with a 15 pip SL (stan­dard size minus spread) below the formation

What would time-based have done?

0.5R, 0.9R in over­lap noise with a high of 1.5R.

What could I have done better?

I could have stuck with the trade due to price not hav­ing made a LL would be more con­flu­ence on the con­tin­u­a­tion of the consolidation. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I felt a bit jumpy but I walked away from the screens. Then when I saw that M15 had closed as a bear engulf I was expect­ing to get stopped out. Decid­ed to wait for the M30 to close as a Bear Engulf (or hit my SL) before tak­ing action. I think I did well to at least stick with the trade longer. I feel okay after­wards. Did well to take the trade. Man­aged it poor­ly but les­son learned. 

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GOLD (NY session)

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Play off LTF SD and or ADR levels
  • Con: Bear­ish sen­ti­ment favors shorts.
  • 50% cor­rect

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

IB trad­ed high­er and extend­ed above in a sus­tained auc­tion trad­ing deep­er into H4 supply.

What was the play of the day?

To be hon­est I do not see a good play here. A momen­tum trade and sus­tained auc­tion from an open with­in val­ue doesn’t hap­pen often. Plus trad­ing right into H4/W1 sup­ply from an open inside val­ue is not the best idea. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Kin­da… it could have been a move off of LTF demand at VAL trad­ing higher. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

I don’t think there was a good oppor­tu­ni­ty. So no there was no good oppor­tu­ni­ty. Lon­don had trad­ed high­er as well. Although in hind­sight I could have poten­tial­ly fol­lowed the D1 Bull­ish Inside Bar nar­ra­tive and hopped on the sus­tained auc­tion from with­in value. 

What could I have done better?

I think I did well to stay out as I had not trad­ed a sim­i­lar nar­ra­tive before. I’ve learned that from with­in val­ue price can have a sus­tained auc­tion fol­low­ing a medi­um time­frame narrative. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken.

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did okay for the most part but am feel­ing quite jumpy the­sel ast few days and I am try­ing to fig­ure out why. I will reflect more on this in the morn­ing and do some med­i­ta­tion as well. 

What did I learn today?

H4 DBD with a large imbal­ance at the open to Failed Auc­tion could be grounds for a devel­op­ing H4 Base.

Price can have a sus­tained auc­tion from with­in val­ue fol­low­ing a D1 narrative. 

What’s one (or more) thing(s) I need to do more often?

Stay obser­vant and fol­low price. Although this time I believe I would have been more open to a bull­ish nar­ra­tive if I had more expe­ri­ence in a sim­i­lar scenario. 

What’s one (or more) thing(s) I need to do less often?

Get biased to a nar­ra­tive. Again, fol­low price. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I could have done bet­ter. I mis­man­aged a per­fect­ly fine trade that cost me ‑0.6R and could have net­ted me a the­o­ret­i­cal 1.5R (although 1R is more like­ly due to cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule).

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210607

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210607

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NY Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210607

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