Summary: Preserve mental capital by stacking the odds in your favor
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- Focus on taking ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be taken on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium initiative activity day.
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Buffer trades (profit target >1R) are allowed and encouraged
- 13 trades by the end of the month
- No social media / messenger apps / phone calls allowed during the trading window
Good Pre-market routines
Bad Session PECS
Fair Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 2
Summary
- GBPNZD
- 1st DTTZ
- Short at the open, with Gravestone Doji premarket at D1 supply expecting the influx of London open to push prices down forming an Evening star.
- 1.95560, SL 1.95820, TP 1.95302
- Scratched the trade for a very minor profit due to AC repair man showing up
- A formed an Evening Star, B formed a base and C the consequent drop extending and closing below IB.
- D formed a Bull Engulf extending to the opposite side forming a Neutral Day. Going long is probably not the best idea. Possible H1 speedbump formed with longer buying wick.
- E closed making HHs
- Short at the open, with Gravestone Doji premarket at D1 supply expecting the influx of London open to push prices down forming an Evening star.
- 2nd DTTZ
- F moved HH exhausting ADR nearing possibly taking out D1 Supply End
- G closed as a Bear Engulf but due to ADR getting exhausted I find going short a bit risky. Trend is up as well.
- H closed as a weaker bullish Inside Bar
- 1st DTTZ
GBPNZD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 — Swing Reversal
- Narrative: D1 Supply, overlapping values, price trading at the top of the range,
- Preferred: Strong Bearish PA, IB extension down, sustained to value edge, monitor for VAA
- Con: Big H4 move premarket
- 90% correct
- Hypo 2 — Return to Value
- Narrative: Big H4 move premarket, open sentiment
- Preferred: strong Bullish PA with IB extension up and sustained auction taking out overhead supply otherwise a potential pullback to value edge to PA reversal to failed auction,
- Con: possible balancing overall market
- 100% correct
What happened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?
Price made a H4 pullback extending below IB to value edge before reversing in D closing as a Bull Engulf extending to the other side forming a Neutral Day.
What happened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?
E and F continued higher before G printed a Bear Engulf leaving a weak selling tail after having exhausted ADR. H then formed a weak bullish Inside bar moving off IB high.
What was the play of the day?
Return to Value play forming a failed auction to eventually Neutral Day
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
Yes I was even though hypo 1 wasn’t the best opportunity I took a chance on taking it anyway forcing myself into more trades.
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
There was an opportunity but I took the ‘wrong’ one which netted me a minor profit (scratched it) due to the AC repair man coming over early. I did not want to let the trade on and I scratched it.
The main opportunity in line with open sentiment was the Return to Value play. D formed a Bull Engulf and with a 2nd Chance entry (getting better SL placement) the trade would have been a good one. Could have monitored for a continuation to the opposite side and HHs.
I did not take the trade due to thinking that after having formed a Neutral Day there would not be much of an extension to the opposite side, especially trading directly within supply.
DTTZ: During IB
Entry: M15 Bearish Inside Bar with potential M30 Evening Star combo,
Profit Margin (ADR or congestion): 1R at value edge
What would a price action exit rule have done?
I would have taken 0.5R due to the nature of the trade (buffer) and having taken it during IB.
How was SL placement and Sizing?
Placement was okay at x.xx85
What would time-based have done?
-1R
What could I have done better?
I could have focused on the actual opportunity whereas because I took this first subpar opportunity I kinda felt less ‘pushed’ to take another trade having fulfilled my ‘one trade a day’ goal.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
I actually felt very jumpy so I walked away. Then shortly after the AC repair man came so cut the trade off. Afterwards, I felt good that I took a trade. Regardless if it wasn’t the best opportunity. But I reacted to what I saw unfolding and without much hesitation (even though trading within IB which I normally don’t do) I took the trade.
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
I did not feel well during the trade. This could have been due to the fact I took the trade during IB which I normally don’t do. I did well to walk away.
What did I learn today?
That even though I see a short term exploit in the market it might not be worth wasting mental (as well as real) capital on it and just focus on the main opportunity in line with the overall narrative.
What’s one (or more) thing(s) I need to do more often?
Take chances. Make Mistakes so that I can learn.
What’s one (or more) thing(s) I need to do less often?
Go against the open sentiment.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
I did okay
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here: