How did I trade today? 20210602

02 Jun How did I trade today? 20210602

Sum­ma­ry: Pre­serve men­tal cap­i­tal by stack­ing the odds in your favor

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • 13 trades by the end of the month
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Bad Ses­sion PECS

Fair Trade selec­tion

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 2

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • Short at the open, with Grave­stone Doji pre­mar­ket at D1 sup­ply expect­ing the influx of Lon­don open to push prices down form­ing an Evening star.
      • 1.95560, SL 1.95820, TP 1.95302
      • Scratched the trade for a very minor prof­it due to AC repair man show­ing up
    • A formed an Evening Star, B formed a base and C the con­se­quent drop extend­ing and clos­ing below IB. 
    • D formed a Bull Engulf extend­ing to the oppo­site side form­ing a Neu­tral Day. Going long is prob­a­bly not the best idea. Pos­si­ble H1 speed­bump formed with longer buy­ing wick.
    • E closed mak­ing HHs
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • F moved HH exhaust­ing ADR near­ing pos­si­bly tak­ing out D1 Sup­ply End
    • G closed as a Bear Engulf but due to ADR get­ting exhaust­ed I find going short a bit risky. Trend is up as well. 
    • H closed as a weak­er bull­ish Inside Bar

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Sup­ply, over­lap­ping val­ues, price trad­ing at the top of the range,
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down, sus­tained to val­ue edge, mon­i­tor for VAA
  • Con: Big H4 move premarket
  • 90% cor­rect

• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Big H4 move pre­mar­ket, open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: strong Bull­ish PA with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out over­head sup­ply oth­er­wise a poten­tial pull­back to val­ue edge to PA rever­sal to failed auction,
  • Con: pos­si­ble bal­anc­ing over­all market
  • 100% cor­rect

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

Price made a H4 pull­back extend­ing below IB to val­ue edge before revers­ing in D clos­ing as a Bull Engulf extend­ing to the oth­er side form­ing a Neu­tral Day.

What hap­pened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

E and F con­tin­ued high­er before G print­ed a Bear Engulf leav­ing a weak sell­ing tail after hav­ing exhaust­ed ADR. H then formed a weak bull­ish Inside bar mov­ing off IB high. 

What was the play of the day?

Return to Val­ue play form­ing a failed auc­tion to even­tu­al­ly Neu­tral Day

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was even though hypo 1 wasn’t the best oppor­tu­ni­ty I took a chance on tak­ing it any­way forc­ing myself into more trades. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I took the ‘wrong’ one which net­ted me a minor prof­it (scratched it) due to the AC repair man com­ing over ear­ly. I did not want to let the trade on and I scratched it. 

The main oppor­tu­ni­ty in line with open sen­ti­ment was the Return to Val­ue play. D formed a Bull Engulf and with a 2nd Chance entry (get­ting bet­ter SL place­ment) the trade would have been a good one. Could have mon­i­tored for a con­tin­u­a­tion to the oppo­site side and HHs. 

I did not take the trade due to think­ing that after hav­ing formed a Neu­tral Day there would not be much of an exten­sion to the oppo­site side, espe­cial­ly trad­ing direct­ly with­in supply. 

DTTZ: Dur­ing IB

Entry: M15 Bear­ish Inside Bar with poten­tial M30 Evening Star combo, 

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): 1R at val­ue edge

What would a price action exit rule have done?

I would have tak­en 0.5R due to the nature of the trade (buffer) and hav­ing tak­en it dur­ing IB.

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Place­ment was okay at x.xx85

What would time-based have done?

-1R

What could I have done better?

I could have focused on the actu­al oppor­tu­ni­ty where­as because I took this first sub­par oppor­tu­ni­ty I kin­da felt less ‘pushed’ to take anoth­er trade hav­ing ful­filled my ‘one trade a day’ goal. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I actu­al­ly felt very jumpy so I walked away. Then short­ly after the AC repair man came so cut the trade off. After­wards, I felt good that I took a trade. Regard­less if it wasn’t the best oppor­tu­ni­ty. But I react­ed to what I saw unfold­ing and with­out much hes­i­ta­tion (even though trad­ing with­in IB which I nor­mal­ly don’t do) I took the trade. 

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did not feel well dur­ing the trade. This could have been due to the fact I took the trade dur­ing IB which I nor­mal­ly don’t do. I did well to walk away. 

What did I learn today?

That even though I see a short term exploit in the mar­ket it might not be worth wast­ing men­tal (as well as real) cap­i­tal on it and just focus on the main oppor­tu­ni­ty in line with the over­all narrative. 

What’s one (or more) thing(s) I need to do more often?

Take chances. Make Mis­takes so that I can learn. 

What’s one (or more) thing(s) I need to do less often?

Go against the open sentiment. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did okay

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210602

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