How did I trade today? 20210601

Sum­ma­ry: Tighter ranges make for dif­fer­ent PA combos

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • 13 trades by the end of the month
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • IB tra­versed 0.55xASR down clos­ing with­in val­ue near­ly rotat­ing right though but with H4 demand right there there could be some reaction. 
    • Pos­si­ble a news report ini­ti­at­ed the move as it seems the mar­ket is pos­si­bly tanking. 
    • C TPO extend­ed down rotat­ing through val­ue clos­ing below IB some­what neutral. 
    • D TPO closed as a Bull Engulf fail­ing auc­tion but due to ranges being tighter than usu­al the PA cobo switch­es to H1 dom­i­nance. And H1 is show­ing a Ham­mer which has poten­tial for a con­tin­u­a­tion down or at least needs one more bar to com­plete a PA for­ma­tion. M15 print­ed a Bear Engulf. 
    • E Closed as a Bear Engulf
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • F closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar, H4 Inside Bar with long buy­ing wick, poten­tial for RBR. Due to pre­vi­ous PA and poor low I let it go. Plus I wasn’t stalk­ing the trade and had just come back to my office. 
    • G closed deep­er with­in IB.
    • H closed high­er with­in IB, H1 RBR, H4 Bear Engulf with long buy­ing wick

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: trad­ing right below D1 Sup­ply, open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly accep­tance and quick follow-through
  • Con: H4 demand with­in value
  • 100% cor­rect

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

Price extend­ed 0.56xASR dur­ing IB accept­ing val­ue then extend­ed in C TPO before fail­ing auc­tion and clos­ing as a bull engulf in D. Then E closed as a big bear engulf again prob­a­bly due to ASR being tighter than ‘nor­mal’. In this case H1 proves to be bet­ter for direc­tion­al cues. 

What hap­pened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

F formed a poor low with C and there was a LTF rever­sal that tran­si­tioned into a M15 Bull Engulf which could have been an entry long. 

What was the play of the day?

Val­ue Accep­tance to Return to Value

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

In a sense it was Hypo 1 that played out although due to hav­ing accept­ed val­ue and rotat­ed through I went with Hypo 2 scenario. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was no oppor­tu­ni­ty on the accep­tance of val­ue as val­ue was too tight and price had already almost com­plete­ly rotat­ed through. There was a counter-move oppor­tu­ni­ty that I failed to take due to 1) not stalk­ing the trade as I was sit­ting out think­ing I need­ed a H1 close before get­ting a direc­tion­al cue. 2) kind of dis­tract­ed with the AC guy com­ing over for repairs. 

What could I have done better?

Due to the slight­ly tighter range and thus the shift­ing in PA com­bo I think I did well to stay out although I could have tak­en a shot on that LTF rever­sal to get my one trade for the day in. Also, today being the first day I did not feel to push things anyway. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did well for the most part. I was anx­ious at first think­ing to have to take a trade. Then when I noticed the shift in PA to H1 I decid­ed I have more time to make my assess­ment and if need­ed I could decide not to trade. This helped me relax. 

What did I learn today?

That when ASR is between 80–90 direc­tion­al cues in PA shift from M30 to H1. This has been some­thing that I have been active­ly for­ward-test­ing for some time now. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Keep fol­low­ing the process.

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Let out­side life inter­fere with my trad­ing (although today it was out of my con­trol). Sad­ly, the guy needs to come back tomorrow…

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did okay… could have done better.

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210601

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210601

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