How did I trade today? 20210527

Sum­ma­ry: End of the month no need to take unneed­ed risk

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Cur­rent­ly in lockdown
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • A formed a Doji and B test­ed val­ue edge clos­ing as a a Pin­bar with very long sell­ing wick, M15 Bear­ish Inside Bar.
    • C trad­ed high­er. D extend­ed above IB accept­ing val­ue and clos­ing with­in IB right below H4 C‑sup. A val­ue accep­tance play is risky due to the tight val­ue and LTF sup­ply at VAH as well as the new­ly formed H4 C‑Sup. Looks like a sus­tained move though.
    • E made a slight HH and then closed down. Bare­ly no sell­ing tail. Wait­ing for more confirmation. 
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • F closed as an Inside bar with longer buy­ing wick, M15 Bull Engulf. I lack the con­fi­dence in any direc­tion cue due to accep­tance of val­ue but H4 c‑sup right there (which is low in the dis­tri­b­u­tion curve). Don’t like the looks of the PA.
    • MN is at the bot­tom of the range. H1 closed as a pos­si­ble Base with longer buy­ing wick. Plus not much of a sell­ing tail on the pro­file. Going to let the trade go and take notes. Plus it’s the end of the month and I am up on the month don’t want to take unneed­ed risk. 
    • G and H trad­ed down extend­ing to the oth­er side form­ing a Neu­tral Day

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: pos­si­ble H4 phase 3, Open sen­ti­ment, H4 Bear Engulf and test of new Sup­ply giv­ing H4‑C‑S 1.93707 and close down. LN open tak­ing out H4 demand. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, Pos­si­ble re-test of val­ue edge, IB exten­sion down, Sus­tained auc­tion to W1 demand (0.6xASR below), D1 demand (1xASR below).
  • Con: trad­ing at H4 QLo
  • 80% cor­rect

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

Price trad­ed high­er and even­tu­al­ly extend­ed above IB hit­ting H4 Sup­ply in D. E turned around.

What hap­pened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

F and G formed a DBD and H closed extend­ing below IB form­ing a Neu­tral Day. I did not like the PA today. This was prob­a­bly due to Vieghe’s speech com­ing out lat­er as I TPO just burst up over IB tak­ing out H4 supply. 

What was the play of the day?

A Return to Val­ue play with a slight accep­tance but fail­ure to accept due to H4 C‑sup.

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was but I did not take it. I did not like what I was see­ing as the H4 C‑sup was low with­in the dis­tri­b­u­tion curve and got test­ed before and price was still lin­ger­ing at the same lev­el with­out mak­ing much of a move. I hypoth­e­sized a pos­si­ble break high­er and this came lat­er dur­ing over­lap noise. 

What could I have done better?

I think I did well. As the ses­sion was going on I didn’t like the way PA was devel­op­ing and not entire­ly lin­ing up. I could have been nit­pick­ing here but just did not like the ‘feel’ of it. Lo and behold Vlieghe’s speech came lat­er in over­lap noise which made price jump tak­ing out H4 sup­ply. Now, one thing.. 1) I did well to under­stand that I didn’t like what I was see­ing. 2) Regard­less I could have tak­en a trade short as PA was devel­op­ing 3) I did well to con­sid­er the end of the month and want­i­ng to close on a win 4) I SHOULD KEEP TRACK OF THESE FUCKING SPEECHES. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade tak­en. I feel good.

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did well here. I was feel­ing a bit bummed that I was not tak­ing a trade. Then I just decid­ed to let it go and observe. More often I am right about my gut than not. Plus being the end of the month did not want to take unneed­ed risk. 

What did I learn today?

I learned that I can be aligned with the mar­ket even though it is not entire­ly behav­ing the way I am used to. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Trust my gut.

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Stress myself. Just fol­low the process and take steps mov­ing forward. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did good

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210527

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210527

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