How did I trade today? 20210525

Sum­ma­ry: Pre­oc­cu­pied and hes­i­tat­ed on what turned out to be great opportunity

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

BAD Ses­sion PECS

BAD Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 4

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • IB trad­ed high­er to LTF sup­ply (tak­ing out H4 demand) before form­ing a Bear­ish Inside Bar although this could be due to the H4 demand that got popped dur­ing IB. I need more con­fir­ma­tion of the narrative. 
    • C formed an Invert­ed Ham­mer indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion down
    • D extend­ed below IB 1 TPO although LTF/H4 demand right under­neath is wide. D closed below IB extend­ing fur­ther. Con­sid­ered putting in a Sell Lim­it Order at 1.96249 in case there is a pull­back before con­tin­u­a­tion. But not a fan of being mid M30 swing as well as LTF VWAP and KC being flat. Even though I do think this will con­tin­ue low­er so I should have tak­en the oppor­tu­ni­ty. Will reflect on this later. 
    • E formed a Poor Low and then pro­ceed­ed to take it out togeth­er with LTF M30 demand closed mak­ing LLs in what looks like a low/medium sus­tained auction. 
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • F trad­ed and closed low­er in a sus­tained auc­tion. G closed as a Bull Engulf with longer sell­ing wick although due to the Poor Low and H4/D1 nar­ra­tive there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion to take out the low. 
    • Low got tak­en out 
    • H closed as a DBD Bear Engulf and I TPO took out H4 demand as hypothesized.

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, return to D1 demand base level, 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA with IB exten­sion down tak­ing out LTF demand and then H4 demand cre­at­ed at D1 demand base level
  • Con: D1 demand base lev­el could pro­vide a bounce to Return to Value
  • 100% cor­rect

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

PA reversed with­in IB to then make a DBD for­ma­tion extend­ing below IB.

What hap­pened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

A lit­tle rever­sal in G but then con­tin­ued lower. 

What was the play of the day?

A Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion play although an argu­ment can be made that it was a Return to Val­ue play.

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

I had ini­tial­ly put Hypo 3 as my first one but then switched it out expect­ing first some bounce from D1 demand base lev­el before con­tin­u­ing lower.

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I hes­i­tat­ed to take it. I was pre­oc­cu­pied with work and when I sat down I felt rushed to take the trade so decid­ed to let it go. Then when I saw there was an oppor­tu­ni­ty for a 2nd chance entry I decid­ed against it as well as price was trad­ing mid swing and I would be trad­ing right into M30 QLo. Even though my PA read­ing was sug­gest­ing a con­tin­ued move low­er I failed to cap­i­tal­ize on it. Then I kin­da let it all go as there were 3 late-sus­tained auc­tion entries I could have tak­en. Why do I mis­trust my judgment?…

What could I have done better?

I could have tak­en the trade. Even when I missed the ini­tial trade (as it was also from with­in IB) there was an exten­sion below fol­lowed by a pull­back to new­ly formed Sup­ply. This was my 2nd chance entry oppor­tu­ni­ty. If that wasn’t enough… there were 3 late-sus­tained auc­tion entries but I just decid­ed to let those go too. I feel I might have got­ten a bit biased that I want­ed to see a bounce from this lev­el first or at least go short from a QHi. 

Also, even though I should have been there to take the trade I did well to not force myself as I was not stalk­ing the trade due to being pre­oc­cu­pied out­side of trad­ing. This in the long run will help me more than not. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did okay for the most part but I felt bummed out I missed that ini­tial trade. Then I was thinking/hoping if it goes back to that lev­el I’ll get in but it nev­er did. That doesn’t mean there were no oth­er good lev­els to enter at…. Ah well…. Progress, not perfection. 

What did I learn today?

That I should not be deal­ing with oth­er stuff when I am sup­posed to be stalk­ing a trade. From this day forth I will turn off all noti­fi­ca­tions with­in my DTTZ trad­ing windows. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Read PA like a BOSS. I knew exact­ly what was going on and I was aligned with the mar­ket nar­ra­tive but I failed to cap­i­tal­ize on it. What use is it if I don’t cap­i­tal­ize on the trade? Next time Gad­get. Next time!

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Be tak­ing work calls, deal­ing with emails, etc when I am sup­posed to be stalk­ing trades as per the DTTZ and my hypos. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I failed today…. I was well-rest­ed and visu­al­iz­ing what I want­ed to see but then got stuck to my bias and not act­ing to what was right in front of me. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210525

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210525

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