How did I trade today? 20210521

Sum­ma­ry: Going against bet­ter judge­ment… (in this case the open sentiment)

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Bad Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • IB trad­ed high­er. Even though there was a large imbal­ance at the open I thought to take more risk (as D1 Sup­ply got popped in pre­mar­ket) and see if there would be a con­tin­u­a­tion to the H4 ral­ly and D1 bull­ish sen­ti­ment. So I put in a Buy Stop order at 1.97650 ( a few pips above IB high but for some rea­son (prob­a­bly spread) I got trig­gered on a 1 TPO exten­sion above IB. Which I don’t like. I had liked for IB to extend a bit fur­ther. Also, I was think­ing this is prob­a­bly not the best trade and am I only tak­ing it to take more trades?!… Ah well in the trade now and it is tak­ing for­ev­er for price to make a move (not a good sign for my trades). SL is cut­ting through the for­ma­tion slight­ly but okay as I am expect­ing momentum.
    • C TPO closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion  with longer sell­ing wick so expect­ing the trade to go against me. 
    • D TPO popped (not a good sign either) above IB mak­ing HHs which could be a stop run but since we made HHs I will stick with the trade one more TPO to see what hap­pens. Let’s see if the trade has any legs although I don’t like D TPO open­ing at C TPO’s open (even though it closed trad­ing slight­ly down)
    • D closed above IB so will give it anoth­er TPO
    • E tra­versed to IB low tak­ing out my SL ‑1R clos­ing as a Bear Engulf. Put a Sell Lim­it Order at x.xx50 but then took it off as I got inse­cure and thought I should wait a lit­tle longer for 2nd DTTZ.
    • The order would not have hit any­way as price extend­ed below form­ing a Neu­tral Day.
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • G made a Poor Low and pulled back a bit. There was a weak M5 bull engulf and did not want to take it as we also have a poor low. Although with a Neu­tral Day there could be a big­ger chance for price to return higher. 

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GBPNZD

Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?

• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, W1 sup­ply, Asia trad­ed higher
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA with IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auction.
  • Con: D1 Bull­ish sentiment
  • 90% cor­rect

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

Hypo 2: Price moved high­er and then extend­ed above IB 1 TPO then 3 more dur­ing D. before form­ing a Bear Engulf in E. 

What hap­pened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

Con­tin­u­a­tion to 1st DTTZ: G formed a Poor Low with F then pulled back form­ing a Ham­mer. Final­ly took out the Poor Low in H.

What was the play of the day?

Mean Rever­sion

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was although it was Hypo 2. With the large imbal­ance at the open I should have gone with the mean rever­sion play instead. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I had tak­en the wrong one so got stopped out. Then I decid­ed to not imme­di­ate­ly reverse the trade even though it would have panned out. Hind­sight is 20/20 huh.

What could I have done better?

I should have gone with my instincts and go with the large imbal­ance at the open sen­ti­ment. This cou­pled with large time frame supply. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I felt good about hav­ing tak­en the trade at first. Also, good that I let my exit rule play out even though I was doubt­ing the trade heav­i­ly. I man­aged to com­mit to the trade. After­wards, I feel stu­pid for hav­ing tak­en that trade just to take a trade even though at first I felt good for hav­ing tak­en the trade. I should have wait­ed for the right opportunity. 

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did well here even though I had strong doubts about the trade. Ener­gy-wise I was good. 

What did I learn today?

A large imbal­ance with over­head sup­ply can see a fake out exten­sion before fail­ing auc­tion and extend­ing the oppo­site direc­tion. Also, a pop of a lev­el (stop run) and hav­ing to wait before the move to hap­pen is not a good sign. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Keep the process

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Wor­ry about one trade. We win or we learn. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did okay…

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210521

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210521

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