How did I trade today? 20210518

18 May How did I trade today? 20210518

Sum­ma­ry: Val­ue Rejec­tion Failure

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • D closed above IB and VAH reject­ing val­ue. Although trad­ing right into sup­ply I find this a bit of a risky play. E made HHs before clos­ing as an Invert­ed Ham­mer (weak failed auc­tion) and F clos­ing as a Three Out­side Down (fail­ing auc­tion) although not the most confident. 
    • A pos­si­ble good play would have been an LTF entry after price reached above val­ue and hit LTF sup­ply before revers­ing. For­ward-test­ing the bal­anc­ing mar­ket play. I did not act on it due to price hav­ing reject­ed val­ue pri­or to it. 
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • It was a con­tin­u­a­tion to the 1st DTTZ and H4 closed as an Invert­ed Hammer

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GBPNZD

Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?

• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Play off LTF SD and ADR levels
  • Con: H4 bear engulf might see con­tin­u­a­tion down
  • 100% cor­rect 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

Ini­tial­ly it looked as if there was a val­ue rejec­tion up. Price closed above VAH with extend­ing IB as well. This made me think of how I used to call this trade a Val­ue Rejec­tion Fail­ure Play. I will go back through my archives and find more exam­ples. I feel when price fails to find busi­ness out­side of val­ue there is a high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty chance for it to reverse. Which makes total sense but I meant it in a way that play­ing an open inside val­ue set­up is prob­a­bly bet­ter when price has first tried to reject val­ue first and then revers­es instead of play­ing off lev­els from with­in val­ue. Although that is some­thing I have done before so again… I will check my play­book on this. 

What was the play of the day?

A Val­ue Rejec­tion Failure

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes, I was. I called it a Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket play but I remem­bered I used to call it Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket / Val­ue Rejec­tion Fail­ure play before. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I did not take it. Instead I decid­ed to for­ward-test the premise: Val­ue Rejec­tion Fail­ure play. 

What could I have done better?

I did well because I lacked con­fi­dence in the play. I decid­ed to for­ward-test the play. Did well here. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did well here

What did I learn today?

I reaf­firmed a play­book by con­scious­ly observ­ing a play I have played quite some times before but I wasn’t too clear on before. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Gain con­fi­dence through for­ward-test­ing plays. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

I did well today

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

Yes, I did

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210518

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210518

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