How did I trade today? 20210514

Sum­ma­ry: Stalk. Visu­al­ize. Exe­cute. Oth­er­wise it is chas­ing the market. 

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Bad Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • C formed a Three Out­side Down extend­ing below IB as per hypo 1
    • Missed the entry due to just return­ing to my desk after receiv­ing a pack­age which made me hes­i­tate. Then due to trad­ing with­in H4 demand I though by pop­ping of said demand there could be a pull­back to IB low for a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry but the ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty seems to be high and kept trad­ing lower. 
    • E closed as a Ham­mer (react­ing off H4 UKC in UT after a pos­si­ble H4 VWAP in UT BD), then F pulled back to struc­ture high (before tak­ing out sin­gle prints in C) and then closed as an invert­ed Ham­mer. For­ward-test­ing anoth­er late-sus­tained auc­tion premise on medium/high ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty days. 
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • G closed down as antic­i­pat­ed in a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry move based off TPO structure. 

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GBPNZD

Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?

• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, IB trad­ed off LTF sup­ply with­in range, D1 Inside Bar clos­ing below D1 QHi, mixed trend and D1 UKC in R
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out H4 demand, oth­er­wise a failed auc­tion after a test of val­ue edge (for a test of D1 QHi after rejection)
  • Con: Some demand cre­at­ed at H4 VWAP in UT 
  • 100% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

With a mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance there was some strength behind the move when C TPO extend­ed below IB and closed as a Three Out­side Down. Made LLs through E before clos­ing as a Ham­mer and F pulling back to TP struc­ture high and clos­ing as a Invert­ed Ham­mer. This Hammer/Inverted Ham­mer com­bo I have seen before. G then closed as anoth­er drop although not mak­ing a LL (yet).

What was the play of the day?

Return to Value

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

It was Hypo 1 that played out

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I missed it. Kin­da. I was pre­oc­cu­pied tak­ing a deliv­ery and when I came back to my desk the move was hap­pen­ing. I decid­ed that I did not want to take a trade that I wasn’t stalk­ing (even though I hypoth­e­sized the play) and decid­ed to wait for anoth­er late-sus­tained auc­tion entry. I deduced there was a chance for it if H4 demand got popped price could see some pull­back to IB low. This did not hap­pen due to the medium/high ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day. This made me switch to a for­ward test­ing mode where I have seen sim­i­lar cir­cum­stances where a TPO struc­ture ‘edge’ to the oppos­ing side can be used as a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry’ with the direc­tion of the move. More on this lat­er in a sep­a­rate post. 

What could I have done better?

I did well because I did not chase the mar­ket even though it would have panned out. My rule is I have to be stalk­ing a trade, visu­al­iz­ing what could hap­pen with­in the frame­work of what I would like to see devel­op. Then exe­cute if that comes to fruition. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did well for the most part but I am not sure what’s going on with this dip I am feel­ing in the after­noon… I’ll inves­ti­gate fur­ther on this. 

What did I learn today?

That I don’t chase the mar­ket. I think this is part­ly out of fear but I think this is a good fear. I need to be on point doing what I do before tak­ing a trade. Not ‘stum­ble onto’ a poten­tial trade and then act. I believe the lat­ter will inter­fere with my progress as a day trader. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Keep fol­low­ing my process. Process is king. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

I did well today. I for­ward-test­ed a trad­ing idea. Great work. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

Yes I did.

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210514

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210514

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