How did I trade today? 20210513

Sum­ma­ry: Intu­ition or Recognition

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Fair Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • IB trad­ed high­er and C extend­ed 2 TPOs above before clos­ing as a Bear­ish Inside Bar with­in IB. This might just be a reac­tion off old H4 sup­ply over­head. With elec­tric­i­ty poten­tial­ly get­ting cut off I am going to take it easy today. Also, price would have to chew its way through LTF demand with­in IB. 
    • D closed low­er with­in IB. So did E. An entry off the close of C would sit at 0.8R at the moment. Low ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty if you can call it that when price has failed auction.
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • F closed slight­ly bull­ish with LTF fal­ter­ing at demand. G closed as a Three Out­side Up. There was no clear cut way to go long here espe­cial­ly after the failed auc­tion and the expect­ed ‘rota­tion’ down to IB low which hasn’t com­plet­ed. I did well to not go short. H4 closed as a Bull Engulf.

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GBPNZD

Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?

• Hypo 2 — Swing Rever­sal / Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
  • Pre­ferred: price extends to the upside hit­ting W1 Sup­ply (and ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria) before form­ing a strong rever­sal to failed auction
  • Con: Pos­si­ble D1 bull­ish narrative
  • 100% cor­rect
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 narrative
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up with a sus­tained auc­tion, prefer­ably a move extend­ing down to val­ue edge before fail­ing auc­tion to new highs.
  • Con: H4/D1/W1 Sup­ply overhead. 
  • 90% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I did well to not go off an IB exten­sion up. Price extend­ed slight­ly in C before revers­ing and fail­ing auc­tion. When that hap­pened I con­sid­ered a short but did not like the wide LTF demand I would be trad­ing into. This, com­bined with a D1 bull­ish nar­ra­tive. Then at 2nd DTTZ there was a LTF rever­sal that trad­ed high­er. Price nev­er trad­ed all the way down to IB low. 

What was the play of the day?

A Mean Rever­sion to Return to Val­ue although both unplayable based on cur­rent trad­ing rules. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was even though Hypo 2 played out first and then Hypo 1. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

I’m gonna say that both oppor­tu­ni­ties were sub­par and am hap­py that I let them go. I did not feel con­fi­dent in trad­ing either and thus noticed I did not have the right setups come to fruition to act upon. 

What could I have done better?

I feel I did well today. Based on what I saw devel­op­ing I did not feel com­fort­able tak­ing a trade due to sub­par prof­it tar­gets. This, and I was kin­da in a rush updat­ing my lap­top due to pos­si­bly los­ing elec­tric­i­ty in my part of the town (there is some main­te­nance going on somewhere). 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades taken 

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

For the most part I did well. I kin­da felt a bit rushed as I was stalk­ing a trade but then decid­ed it wasn’t worth it as I was updat­ing my lap­top. Then lat­er in the ses­sion I got a bit tired again. I won­der why that is as my diet hasn’t changed. 

What did I learn today?

That I should trust my gut as I have put in 1000s of hours of screen time I think I know a lit­tle bit when my gut says the trade is wrong. Even though I am quite pro­fi­cient in under­stand­ing order­flow and price action I did not want to risk cap­i­tal for a sub­par prof­it tar­get. I’m glad I didn’t. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Trust my gut. Instincts. Intu­ition. Or as I like to call it: recognition. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

I did well today. If I would have to say is that I don’t need to be trad­ing. I do fair­ly well with this even though I have been slight­ly push­ing myself to trade more as there is a sig­nif­i­cant downtick in num­ber of trades ever since I start­ed trad­ing a big­ger account. At the same time my aim is not to just willy-nil­ly take trades. I just need to do a lit­tle more to step out of my com­fort zone. I think I am doing well in this regard. No jumps, just step by step. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did well today

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210513

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210513

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