How did I trade today? 20210512

Sum­ma­ry: Being aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive doesn’t mean you need to trade

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Going for a jog as the gym might not be the safest atm
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Going well here
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • IB closed as a Bull Engulf and C extend­ed above IB but closed with­in IB (although no PA rever­sal). Due to the large imbal­ance going long is risky but it could be the play off the D1 nar­ra­tive at least extend­ing to QHi. Although a rever­sal around H4-C‑S 1.95883 would be the safer place. I will for­ward-test a pos­si­ble trend con­tin­u­a­tion from a large imbalance. 
    • D extend­ed mak­ing HHsalmost exhaust­ing ADR in what looks like a sus­tained auction
    • Pos­si­ble Sell­ing tail in D and E retrac­ing back into IB. If there is a Bear Engulf I will put a Sell Lim­it Order at new­ly formed C‑sup
    • I had placed the Sell Lim­it Order but on fur­ther exam­i­na­tion this could be a LTF fake out due to the D1 bull­ish nar­ra­tive near­ing End of Sup­ply and pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion. Also Gold shows a lack of com­mit­ment as well. Both assets usu­al­ly have a neg­a­tive cor­re­la­tion. E closed almost rotat­ing through to IB low
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • There is still no exten­sion below IB and H just closed as a Bull Engulf at M30 VWAP in UT. H4 closed as a con­tin­u­a­tion higher.

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GBPNZD

Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?

• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, near­by H4 Sup­ply plus D1 sup­ply end
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA with IB exten­sion down or a failed auc­tion in case of an exten­sion up.
  • Con: If ADR gets exhaus­tion, D1 narrative
  • 100% cor­rect
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bull­ish Nar­ra­tive almost tak­ing out D1 Sup­ply, ADR exhaus­tion nearby. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, sus­tained auc­tion exhaust­ing ADR and tak­ing out D1 Supply
  • Con: Pos­si­ble Reac­tion off pop­ping the D1 Supply
  • 90% cor­rect (uncon­firmed yet)

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I did well to under­stand that even though there was a failed auc­tion through a Bear Engulf clos­ing with­in IB. Tech­ni­cal­ly, this was a mean rever­sion play but due to the D1 bull­ish nar­ra­tive more down­side wasn’t in the cards. Even though the trend con­tin­u­a­tion sce­nario hasn’t real­ly played out yet. 

What was the play of the day?

Mean Rever­sion

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was. Even though there was no con­tin­u­a­tion down to the mean rever­sion play and the trend con­tin­u­a­tion hasn’t played out (yet). 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

I’m gonna say no there was no oppor­tu­ni­ty with­in my trad­ing win­dow. Although there was a  mean rever­sion play, that only would have done 0.5R and ‑0.2R time-based.

DTTZ:1st

Entry: Sell Lim­it Order

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): 3R to VAH, LTF demand at 2R 

What would a price action exit rule have done?

-0.1R

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Just above for­ma­tion. Entry at x.xx44, SL at x.xx74

What would time-based have done?

-0.2R

What could I have done better?

I did well to stay out and not go against the D1 bull­ish narrative

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did well here. I did feel a bit lethar­gic again. Didn’t sleep the best last night so tried mak­ing up for it with a nap. But nev­er the same as a good night’s sleep. 

What did I learn today?

That I can cor­rect­ly read mar­ket nar­ra­tive and don’t have to take a trade based on it. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Stay the course

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

I did well today

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210512

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210512

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