How did I trade today? 20210511

Sum­ma­ry: Make a plan. Visu­al­ize price action and order­flow. Then act if confirmed. 

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
    • Doing one right now. Today is the last day. 

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • C closed as an Evening Star extend­ing below IB, didn’t like the long move plus with under­ly­ing LTF demand and trad­ing with­in H4 demand I hope for a pull­back before a con­tin­u­a­tion. Thus: Sell Lim­it Order at 1.94300 SL 1.94600 TP 1.93700. 
    • Price moved low­er tak­ing out LTF/H4 demand
    • Put the Sell Lim­it Order at IB low 1.94230 in case of a low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day and reac­tion off pop­ping H4 demand makes price pull­back to it. 
    • Late-sus­tained auc­tion entry trig­gered at close of D (clos­ing as a Ham­mer below IB. Even though M15 closed as a Bull Engulf (on the hour) I think it can be negat­ed due to the pop­ping of H4 demand.
    • E closed as a slight M30 DBD
    • I took the trade off at 0.8R as this coin­cid­ed with almost tak­ing out new­ly formed LTF demand (coin­cid­ing with H4 UKC) plus with being under cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule a 1R tar­get is okay. 
    • Price moved down to almost tak­ing out all of the buy­ing tail in D but one TPO. I expect the move go fur­ther down. I am hap­py with let­ting the trade on the way I did. 
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • I expect to see the 2nd DTTZ to be a sus­tained auc­tion to the first move. Although M5 is show­ing a poten­tial rever­sal but noth­ing strong (yet) so for now that is con­sid­ered a slight pull­back. M15 closed as an Inside Bar 
    • G closed as a Doji and formed a Poor Low with D, M15 Bull­ish Inside Bar before almost tak­ing out LTF demand. With 2nd DTTZ there could be a rever­sal. Although with the Poor Low in place this is not the best opportunity. 
    • H closed as a Grave­stone Doji retrac­ing back to IBR low which could have been anoth­er late-sus­tained auc­tion entry. M15 closed as a Bear Engulf. H4 trad­ed low­er from H4 sup­ply. With Poor Low still intact there could be a move down in I TPO. 

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment. Near­by supply. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish PA, and IB exten­sion down or a (quick) failed auc­tion if there is an ini­tial exten­sion up.
  • Con: No clear rever­sal on H4, if D1 sup­ply gets tak­en out
  • 100% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

Dur­ing the 1st DTTZ there was an exten­sion down. With C being that long I did not want to enter in on IB exten­sion below (although I could have). I gath­ered that due to under­ly­ing M30 demand and trad­ing into H4 demand there could be a bounce and poten­tial late-sus­tained auc­tion entry. Which came at IB low. I did well to assess the sit­u­a­tion and visu­al­ize what I want­ed to see and then act on it. 

What was the play of the day?

Mean Rever­sion

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was right on Hypo 1

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was and I did. 

DTTZ:1st

Entry: Sell Lim­it Order at IB low for a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): VAH would have been 2.5R and expect­ing H4 demand to get tak­en out there would be ample room for the trade to move. 

What would a price action exit rule have done?

0.6R through a M15 Bull­ish Inside Bar

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Due to hav­ing the same entry as a momen­tum trade I deem it to be good. Entry was at x.xx23 with SL at x.xx53. 

What would time-based have done?

0.6R

What could I have done better?

I think I did well today. Based on the mar­ket nar­ra­tive I visu­al­ized what I want­ed to see and I act­ed on it when it devel­oped. Then… I let the trade do its thing by mon­i­tor­ing the pro­file for LLs and a sus­tained auc­tion. Gath­er­ing it was going to be a low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day due to under­ly­ing LTF demand and pop­ping of H4 demand I stayed with the trade until it near­ly hit my 1R tar­get. Did well here. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I felt a lit­tle unease when C TPO closed as a Marubozu think­ing I might have missed the move as it looked to have strength behind it. Then gath­ered objec­tive­ly what I would like to see as my ini­tial pull­back fur­ther with­in IB seemed less prob­a­ble I wait­ed for a fur­ther exten­sion down and signs of a low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day and due to a sus­tained auc­tion a pos­si­ble re=test of IB low. This is where I put my Sell Lim­it Order and it got hit quite quick­ly and trad­ed lower.

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did well here. 

What did I learn today?

I learned that if a trade runs away from me it is okay. I learned that due to con­ges­tion in the way there is a pos­si­bil­i­ty for a bounce (even when H4 SD gets popped which I have been for­ward-test­ing). This bounce can offer a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Trust in my trad­ing skills

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Wor­ry about any dead­line. There is no there. There is only con­sis­ten­cy in progress. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

Yes I did my friend. Hope you did as well. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210511

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210511

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