How did I trade today? 20210505

Sum­ma­ry: Val­ue Rejec­tion Low

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

BAD Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 2

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: M30 Three Out­side Down clos­ing slight­ly below VAL
  • C: Extend­ed below in a pos­si­ble sus­tained auc­tion with momen­tum retrac­ing all the way to new­ly devel­oped H4 demand pos­si­bly negat­ing the sig­nif­i­cance. Still not going to trade short right into it.
    • Took out LTF demand clos­ing as a Marubozu can­dle below IB
  • D: Made LLs clos­ing as a Ham­mer react­ing off LTF demand at H4 Demand End
    • M15 con­sol­i­da­tion pos­si­ble speedbump
  • E: Made LLs tak­ing out H4 and LTF demand now near­ing H4 VWAP in UT
    • Clos­ing as anoth­er Ham­mer, M15 Bull­ish Inside Bar although due to the sus­tained auc­tion and not enough struc­ture on the pro­file it is prob­a­bly not the good time to go long yet. Also, it’s not the right time yet. 
  • F: Closed as a Neu­tral Inside Bar
  • G: Start­ed tak­ing out Sin­gle Prints in C although just 0.5R to Val­ue Edge Low, plus with H4 demand just being tak­en out (as well as no com­plete rever­sal on M30) I think this is a bit risky to take a long
    • Closed as a consolidation
  • H: Formed a Poor Low with E
    • Then pro­ceed­ed to make LLs and took out new­ly formed LTF demand, clos­ing as a H4 Bear Engulf Marubozu

• GOLD
  • IB: Trad­ed higher
  • C: Extend­ed below, there might be a H4 Base after a Drop in the making. 
  • D: Made LLs, low ini­tia­tive so far, 
  • E: Closed as a Bull Engulf
  • F: Extend­ed to the oth­er side form­ing a Neu­tral Day fur­ther sug­gest­ing a pos­si­ble devel­op­ing H4 Base
    • Closed as an Invert­ed Hammer
  • G: Placed a paper trade on a M5 rever­sal after hav­ing formed a Neu­tral Day
    • Short 1778.500 SL 1781.539 TP 1775.461 (1R) 1772.421 (2R)
    • Closed as a slight Bear Engulf
  • H: Trad­ed deep­er into IB

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3
  • Pre­ferred: Strong close below val­ue coin­cid­ing with an IB exten­sion down.
  • Con: Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 move higher
  • 100% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

Price formed a Three Out­side Down dur­ing IB clos­ing slight­ly below VAL with a con­se­quent exten­sion of IB in C. Fol­lowed by a sus­tained auc­tion pop­ping H4 demand that saw a con­se­quent LTF rever­sal that didn’t hold (even attempt­ing a Sin­gle Print Fade) and con­tin­ued lower. 

What was the play of the day?

Val­ue Rejec­tion Down

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was although it was on Hypo 3. I had it as hypo 2 ini­tial­ly but bumped it down to 3 con­sid­er­ing the H4 demand under­neath. I could have giv­en more weight to the poten­tial H4 Phase 3. All in all I did well. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I did not take it as I was for­ward-test­ing mul­ti­ple premis­es. One of which the val­ue rejec­tion and the oth­er the pop­ping of a H4 SD zone. I will explain my find­ings in anoth­er post. 

What could I have done better?

I did well to not take the trade. 1) I felt a bit tired still 2) I wasn’t too sure about the val­ue rejec­tion play and when I saw the move was sus­tained I kin­da let it go as with an open with­in val­ue there is a high­er like­li­hood of a play off near­by SD or ADR levels. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken.

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open below sen­ti­ment, H4 Bear Engulf premarket
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish PA with IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auc­tion, prob­a­bly low ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day due to under­ly­ing demand
  • Con: Trad­ing right into H4/D1 demand.
  • 70% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

There was an ini­tial exten­sion below IB in C which then reversed in E and F took it over to a Neu­tral Day. I gath­ered we could be see­ing a H4 Base being formed and with a return to val­ue play and LTF rever­sal (at 2nd DTTZ) I gath­ered to go short on a paper trade for­ward-test­ing the premise. 

What was the play of the day?

Return to Value

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

1 although not entire­ly the way hypothesized.

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was and I took a paper trade on it that did a hypo­thet­i­cal 0.6R time-based. I will dis­cuss the details in a sep­a­rate post.

What could I have done better?

I did well to for­ward-test the premise. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I was doing well but then got tired. I did a 10 minute bin­au­r­al beats nap and that kin­da got me over the hump. 

What did I learn today?

That I can stay objec­tive when it comes to myself and that I can decide to not take trades even though that is my aim for the month: Take more trades. Not just willy-nil­ly though.

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Stay the course and fol­low my process. It is there for a rea­son. Cre­at­ed by yours trule. Who am I to go against myself?! Huh?! WHO?!!! OK I get annoy­ing when I get tired 🙂 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

I did well today so shut up

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

Didn’t I tell you to shut up?!

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210505

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210505

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