How did I trade today? 20210504

04 May How did I trade today? 20210504

Sum­ma­ry: Start­ing a Bart Simp­son exer­cise today

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Going in a bit
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
    • I will be doing a Bart Simp­son exer­cise start­ing today. 50 sen­tence before bed for 7 days.

Fair Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

BAD Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: Trad­ed high­er tak­ing out H4 sup­ply leav­ing a sell­ing wick
    • Placed a Buy stop 1.94030 SL1.93780 TP 1.94296 (1R) 1.94558 (2R)
    • Rea­sons: H4 Sup­ply got tak­en out, IB exten­sion up, near­by ADR exhaus­tion might get exhaust­ed. Going to mon­i­tor for the exhaus­tion and sus­tained auc­tion on M15 and profile 
  • C: Extend­ed above IB just below ADR exhaustion
    • Trig­gered the buy stop although a bit ear­ly as I had put the order above IBR but it got trig­gered while still trad­ing with­in IB.
    • Closed as Marubozu just above IB
  • D: Pos­si­bly a low/medium activ­i­ty day although did make HHs
    • M15 closed as a doji below M15 sup­ply, I’ll wait for M30 to close high­er if not there might be a failed auc­tion and a pos­si­ble rever­sal and thus I’ll take the trade off. 
    • Closed in a sus­tained auc­tion exhaust­ing ADR
  • E: Took the trade off after real­iz­ing the next sup­ply over­head is a D1 sup­ply and not a H4 sup­ply. Took 0.4R.
    • Trade hit 1R at H4/D1 supply
    • I am okay with tak­ing the trade off because 1) I took the trade which is some­thing I don’t nor­mal­ly do but based on price action and devel­op­ing order­flow I still went in. 2) I took my 1 trade for the day but I will still look for a pos­si­ble rever­sal. Or per­haps mon­i­tor for a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry
    • Made HHs tak­ing out M15 supply
      • Trade would have reached 1.5R
  • F: Closed mak­ing HHs in a sus­tained move
    • Trade would have hit 1.8R
  • G: Made HHs hit­ting 3R
  • H: Closed as a Bear Engulf, H4 clos­ing higher.

• GOLD
  • IB:Traded high­er 
  • C: Extend­ed above IB
  • D: Closed with­in IB fail­ing auc­tion through a Bear Engulf
  • E: Test­ed IB low and closed as a pos­si­bly base
  • F: Closed as a DBD extend­ing below IB form­ing a Neu­tral Day
  • G: Closed as a Spin­ning Top at VAH
  • H: Closed as a Bull Engulf, H4 con­tin­u­a­tion down not hit­ting the Base level.

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: 0.5xASR IBR, H4 sup­ply got tak­en out, 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up, exhaust­ing ADR, sus­tained auc­tion close with­in H4 supply.
  • Con: H4‑C‑S 1.94300 right above
  • 100% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

Price extend­ed in C tak­ing out LTF sup­plies and H4 sup­ply. What fol­lowed was a sus­tained auc­tion clos­ing higher.

What was the play of the day?

A Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion play

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was and I did

DTTZ:1st

Entry: IB exten­sion up through Buy Stop Order

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): H4/D1 sup­ply right over­head only giv­ing 1R but with the strength of the move I gath­ered there could be more room. Trade even­tu­al­ly went to 3R.

What would a price action exit rule have done?

Rever­sal came after 2R was reached through a M15 Bear­ish Inside Bar. Trae went to 3R max and exit would have yield­ed 1.7R.

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Good due to the momen­tum nature of the trade as it was cut­ting through the formation.

What would time-based have done?

1.5R

What could I have done better?

I could have stuck with the trade as it was a sus­tained auc­tion. I grasshop­pered out fo the trade as I real­ized that the H4 sup­ply was in fact a D1 sup­ply. Hav­ing said that I did real­ly well to take the trade based on price action and order­flow read­ing as I nor­mal­ly don’t like trad­ing right into H4/D1 SD zones. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I felt okay for the most part. When I real­ized not hav­ing noticed the D1 sup­ply I got anx­ious to get out even though price action and order­flow showed strength behind the move and thus I should have stuck with the trade.

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Pull­back, H4 retrac­ing to a base demand lev­el but not hit­ting it. Instead there is a LTF demand and VAH in the way where buy­ers could be wait­ing to step in. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up, Sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF supplies.
  • Con: H4‑C‑S 1791.817 BASE in the way although when hit there could be more upside
  • 70% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

There was an exten­sion up first before price reversed and turned around to form a Neu­tral Day extend­ing below IB to VAH before con­sol­i­dat­ing. Thus the oppor­tu­ni­ty was out­side of the trad­ing window.

What was the play of the day?

Return to Val­ue after trad­ing window

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Kin­da. There was a bit of a mean rever­sion before a return to value. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I did not take it as it did not fit my trad­ing plan plus I had tak­en a trade in GBPNZD.

DTTZ: 1st

Entry: Bear Engulf fail­ing auction.

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): Good till val­ue edge

What would a price action exit rule have done?

1.5R

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Not great as it would have cut through the formation

What would time-based have done?

1R

What could I have done better?

I could have tak­en the mean rever­sion trade but I am hap­py I did not

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did most­ly okay here although I grasshop­pered out of the trade. Thus I will start my Bart Simp­son exer­cise today. 

What did I learn today?

I learned that I am more right than not and as such I should let my exit rules dic­tate me clos­ing a trade. Regard­less of win or lose. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Stick to my process to catch myself mak­ing mistakes

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Take trades off with­out an exit signal

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did not as there was a sus­tained auc­tion and I could have stuck with the trade

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210504

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210504

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