How did I trade today? 20210503

Sum­ma­ry: Sin­gle Print Fade

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Going in a bit
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
    • Addressed this under­neath I did okay

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Fair Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 2

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: Trad­ed high­er with B clos­ing as a Marubozu (tra­vers­ing almost 0.5xASR)  near­ing H4 sup­ply End
  • C: Extend­ed above IB tak­ing out H4/D1 supply
    • Hes­i­tat­ed to go long as prof­it tar­get is only 1.3 to above H4 sup­ply although due to IB tra­vers­ing 0.5xASR and clos­ing as a Marubozu can­dle I should have known there could be some momen­tum behind the move.
    • Price trad­ed high­er test­ing H4-C‑S 1.93470 (ADR exhaus­tion right above it) 
    • Closed right below it in a sus­tained auc­tion leav­ing behind sin­gle prints with price arriv­ing at D1 VWAP in DT
  • D: Sus­tained auc­tion mak­ing HHs clos­ing as anoth­er Marubozu although ADR did not get exhaust­ed (yet)
  • E: Poor High­j­formed and then closed as an Inside Bar with longer buy­ing wick
  • F: Closed as a Three Inside Down
  • G: Start­ed tak­ing out Sin­gle Prints in C I went short due to near­by H4 c‑sup and 2nd DTTZ, M30 Three Inside Down, and 4 TPO struc­ture (not the best plus there is no buy­ing tail instead a Poor High
    • Closed down tak­ing out more sin­gle prints leav­ing the trade on till IB edge High or time-based
  • H: priced reached 1.93200 and start­ed stut­ter­ing back up cre­at­ed M5 demand (near­ing M15 VWAP in UT) with 7 ticks to IB edge high I took the trade off at 0.2R
    • Trade would have hit IB high and ini­tial prof­it tar­get would have been 0.8R
    • Closed as a Ham­mer, H4 move high­er to H4 UKC

• GOLD
  • IB: A closed as a Bear­ish Inside Bar, B closed lower
  • C: Extend­ed below IB although just 1R to VAH also a Return to Val­ue play might be the safest option (Hypo 3)
    • Closed slight­ly below IB after extend­ing down. Look­ing for D to close as a Bull Engulf fail­ing auc­tion to poten­tial­ly go in long as per Hypo 3
  • D: No Bull Engulf instead a pos­si­ble base as an Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick was formed, close was slight­ly with­in IB although no M30 PA to con­firm the failed auction
  • E: Closed as a Three Inside Up but with a long sell­ing wick
  • F: Price con­tin­ued higher
  • G: Closed higher
  • H: Closed as a Bear­ish inside Bar but with long sell­ing wick that extend­ed above IB form­ing a Neu­tral Day. H4 Inside Bar with long selling/buying wicks of which

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 c‑dem at VAH
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up with a sus­tained auction
  • Con: 5‑day brack­et­ing range trad­ing into H4 sup­ply could see a rever­sal with­in over­all range
  • 100% cor­rect
• Hypo 3 — H4 Swing Rever­sal (vari­a­tion to 1)
  • Nar­ra­tive: Tak­ing out H4 demand at 1st DTTZ, hit­ting H4‑C‑S 1.93470 revers­ing around 2nd DTTZ
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA rever­sal at H4‑C‑S 1.93470, per­haps a TPO struc­ture buildup or sin­gle print fade
  • Con: tak­ing out H4 supply
  • 100% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

There was a Momen­tum exten­sion high in C after B closed as a Marubozu. D moved high­er and formed a Poor High with E clos­ing as a Ham­mer before form­ing a Three Inside Down. Then in G price start­ed to take out Sin­gle Prints in C. 

What was the play of the day?

Return to Val­ue to H4 Swing Reversal

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was, Both on Hypo 1 and its tran­si­tion to hypo 3. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

Yes I did. I did not act on the first oppor­tu­ni­ty as I did not want to trade right into a H4 sup­ply. Then when price reversed based on hypo 3 I took the reversal

DTTZ: 2nd

Entry: M30 Three Inside Down, Sin­gle Print Fade

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or congestion):IB edge High was only 0.8R

What would a price action exit rule have done?

A close at IB edge high would have yield­ed 0.8R

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

SL place­ment was good as entry was just above the round num­ber at x.xx31, SL at x.xx55

What would time-based have done?

0.5R

What could I have done better?

I could have let price get near­er to IB edge high instead of grasshop­per­ing out. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I felt good before the trade. Dur­ing the trade I wasn’t hap­py with the Poor High as I have often seen this get tak­en out. How­ev­er, with the Three Inside Down and tak­ing out of Sin­gle Prints I still did well to get in. How­ev­er, it did make me feel uneasy. 

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
  • Hypo 3 — Return to Value
    • Nar­ra­tive: D1 C‑dem at VAH with LTF demand above it in a larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment
    • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion dow to LTF demand with a strong bull­ish PA to failed auc­tion to Neu­tral Day
    • Con: Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 3
    • 90% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I was fair­ly accu­rate here although the play off LTF demand was fair­ly flim­si­cal. I was hop­ing for some­thing stronger so I let the trade go. The rever­sal came in the form of a M13 Three Out­side Up but with a longer sell­ing wick and thus I didn’t have much con­fi­dence in it. This coin­cid­ed with a M30 Inside Bar (with longer sell­ing wick) close. I was wrong and it did actu­al­ly move higher. 

What was the play of the day?

Return to Value.

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

It was not Hypo 1 but instead Hypo 3 that played out. I could have giv­en a high­er pri­or­i­ti­za­tion due to D1/H4/LTF demand at VAH. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

I was stalk­ing the oppor­tu­ni­ty but did not like the rever­sal pat­tern and as it was near 1st DTTZ I did not want to use a M5 PA rever­sal. Did well here. 

DTTZ:1st

Entry: Entry would have been a flim­sy M15 Three Out­side Up

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or congestion):1.5R at IB edge high (as it was a failed auc­tion) form­ing a neu­tral day it hit 1.8R at max

What would a price action exit rule have done?

1.2R off of a M5 Evening Star dur­ing H which would have been valid due to time of day

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

SL would have been below the formation

What would time-based have done?

0.5R

What could I have done better?

I think I did well to not go in on the flim­sy M15 Three Out­side Up

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did okay here. I did feel a bit jumpy due to that poor high but I did okay for the most part. Although I could have let the trade on longer. As it was a Sin­gle Print Fade I should not have wait­ed for a PA rever­sal to get out. Rather an arrival at a lev­el in this case IB edge high. I am going to let myself off here for tak­ing prof­its too soon as it was big dif­fer­ent and it was late into the ses­sion. Plus the poor high was bug­ging me. But next time! BS exer­cise is on. 

What did I learn today?

I learned that a rever­sal can come with a Poor High/Low if there are oth­er confluences. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Take trades

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Wor­ry about any one trade’s outcome

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did okay… not entire hap­py to have tak­en prof­its a bit too soon but hap­py that I took the trade. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210503

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210503

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