How did I trade today? 20210427

27 Apr How did I trade today? 20210427

Sum­ma­ry: Bal­anc­ing Markets

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Going run­ning in a bit
• Only trade the main account
  • Check 
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Check 
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • Check 
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Check 

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Fair Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: B closed as a Bull Engulf tra­vers­ing 0.4xASR
  • C: Extend­ed above IB test­ing H4 c‑sup before clos­ing as an Invert­ed Ham­mer with­in IB
    • Paper Trade: Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket, entry M5 con­sol­i­da­tion and break down
  • D: Formed an Three Out­side Down clos­ing well with­in IB although no test of IB low
    • A bal­anc­ing mar­ket LTF entry would have yield­ed 1.1R
  • E: Closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar
  • F: Closed mak­ing HHs with a near-Marubozu can­dle clos­ing right at H4 c‑sup
  • G: Made HHs clos­ing higher 
  • H: Made HHs clos­ing as an Invert­ed Ham­mer, H4 RBR

• GOLD
  • IB: A test­ed LTF sup­ply clos­ing above VAH then B closed as a Bear Engulf tra­vers­ing 0.4xASR
  • C: Extend­ed below test­ing D1/LTF demand at VAL clos­ing as a Ham­mer with­in IB
    • Placed a Buy Lim­it Order about 4 pips above new­ly formed M5 C‑dem which nev­er got triggered.
  • D: Closed as a flim­sy Three Out­side Up
  • E: Closed trad­ing high­er towards IB high
  • F: Trad­ed high­er test­ing IB high with­out extend­ing to the oth­er side
  • G: Extend­ed above IB form­ing a Neu­tral Day
  • H: Closed as a M30 Ham­mer, H4 Hammer

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Play off LTF SD and ADR lev­els, H4 c‑sup
  • Con: No brack­et, at the end of a DT, pos­si­bil­i­ty for a rever­sal here
  • 100% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

Price opened tra­vers­ing 0.4xASR high­er before extend­ing in C to then close as an invert­ed ham­mer. Nor­mal­ly not a good pat­tern to trade off of but since it was an open with­in val­ue sen­ti­ment cou­pled with near­by H4 c‑sup and ADR 0.5 this was good loca­tion for an LTF entry short. D formed a Three Out­side Down­be­fore E took it back up again bounc­ing off near­by D1 demand. 

What was the play of the day?

Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. H4 c‑sup with near­by ADR 0.5 High, M30 Invert­ed Ham­mer, LTF entry on M5 consolidation. 

2nd oppor­tu­ni­ty was a M5 Three Inside Up at D1 c‑dem to go long in E TPO. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Dead on. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There were two oppor­tu­ni­ties but I did not take any. We are near­ing the end of the month plus trad­ing from with­in val­ue is some­thing that I find a bit risky still. Did great on tak­ing notes. 

T1

DTTZ: 1st

Entry: M5 con­sol­i­da­tion at H4 c‑sup near­by ADR 0.5 high

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): IB low would have yield­ed 1.5R

T2

DTTZ: 1st

Entry: M5 Three Inside UP or wait for M15 Bull­ish Inside Bar at D1/M30 demand, VAL,

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): Entry off M5 would have yield­ed 2R at VAH, M15 1.8R

What would a price action exit rule have done?

ABout 1R on the first trade and 1.1R on the sec­ond if based on M5, IOf entry was on M5 and I had let M15 guide my trade it would have yield­ed the 2R

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Great stan­dard SL place­ment above for­ma­tion and below the sec­ond trade. 

What would time-based have done?

Stopped out on the first 1.5R on the 2nd

What could I have done better?

I did well to grow more con­fi­dent in a some­what risky trade due to the bal­anc­ing nature of the mar­ket. Also, there was no brack­et and hence the mar­ket wasn’t bal­anc­ing for long. Plus a wider val­ue was cre­at­ed at the ‘bot­tom’ of a DT indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble rever­sal so longs were favored. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades taken

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Play off LTF SD and ADR lev­els, D1/M30 demand at VAL
  • Con: Pos­si­ble H4 DBD
  • 100% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

B formed a bear engulf at VAH and C extend­ed below to return with­in IB and close as a Ham­mer (quite the cor­re­lat­ed oppo­site of GBPNZD btw…) I had put in a Buy Lim­it order 4 pips above the new­ly formed M5 C‑dem as I was hop­ing for a pull­back. When this didn’t come I let the trade go. Even though this was also a bal­anc­ing mar­ket trad­ing oppor­tu­ni­ty this par­tic­u­lar trade was with the larg­er time­frame sen­ti­ment of the mar­ket and thus I found it safer to poten­tial­ly trade. Alas, order didn’t get triggered. 

What was the play of the day?

Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. D1 c‑dem at VAL, M30 Ham­mer, LTF entry on M5 Three Out­side Up.

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Dead on

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

Yes there was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but my order didn’t get triggered. 

DTTZ: 1st

Entry: Buy Lim­it order didn’t get trig­gered. An entry off the close (or M15 Bull engulf) would have yield­ed about 1R before price start­ed faltering

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): Heavy con­ges­tion due to H4 sup­ply as well as D1 so was prob­a­bly not the safest trade.

What would a price action exit rule have done?

M15 Three Out­side Down would have scratched the trade 

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Stan­dard SL place­ment would have been below the formation

What would time-based have done?

0.7R

What could I have done better?

I did well to try and get a bet­ter entry for a bet­ter R mul­ti­ple but did not get triggered. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I kin­da got a bit tired again…. Not sure what’s going on… will keep tabs on it and try and sleep ear­ly again tonight. I have been sleep­ing deep­er though so that should have been good. Will mon­i­tor longer. 

What did I learn today?

That per­haps in a Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket play I aim for 1R prof­it tar­gets as the mar­ket can quick­ly reverse in the oppo­site direc­tion. I will for­ward-test this principle. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Keep play­ing the sci­en­tist. Com­ing up with hypothe­ses and then go out and dis­prove them. See how I did not say prove them as not to get stuck in a bias. I am here to see if my hypothe­ses actu­al­ly hold up. I do not want to ‘force my will’ onto the mar­ket (as if that’s even possible).

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

I did great today. I didn’t feel a 100%. Open Inside Val­ue days are always more tricky. Plus the end of the month near­ing so try­ing to pre­serve cap­i­tal is more important. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

Fuck yes.

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210427

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210427

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