How did I trade today? 20210426

When lack­ing confidence/clarity look for an idea to pos­si­bly for­ward-test instead of try­ing to force a trade

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Not today. Gonna turn in early
• Only trade the main account
  • Check
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Check
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • Check
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Check

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Bad Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 2

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: IB accept­ed val­ue some­what but B trad­ed and closed as an Inside Bar
  • C: Extend­ed below IB and closed as a Doji (pos­si­ble Base) inside IB
  • D: Extend­ed 1.5xIBR below IB form­ing (for now) a nor­mal vari­a­tion day
  • E: Closed as an Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick
    • Putting a paper trade entry short at 1.92882, SL 1.93134, 1.92376 (2R) for a poten­tial late-sus­tained auc­tion entry based on a low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day
  • F: Closed as a DBD
  • G: Closed Mak­ing LLs
  • H: Made LLs clos­ing on it’s low about 10 pips above H4 demand, H4 Bear Engulf
    • Paper trade would have made 1.9R

• GOLD
  • IB: A closed as a Bull ENgulf at M30 QLo, B as a drag­on­fly doji with long buy­ing wick span­ning all the way down to IB low (LN open)
  • C: Extend­ed and closed above IB with­in LTF supply
  • D: Closed as an Inside Bar
    • Placed a paper trade on a flim­sy M15 Bear Engulf­ing with con­tin­u­a­tion as it closed on the M30 as a Bear­ish Inside Bar. 
  • E: Closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion form­ing at VAL 
  • F: Trad­ed and closed high­er with­out mak­ing HHs
  • G: Closed as a flim­sy bear engulf
  • H: Closed low­er as a weak failed auc­tion, H4 Inside Bar / pos­si­ble consolidation
    • Paper trade scratched mak­ing less than 0.1R

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 c‑sup at VAL
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA pos­si­bly fail­ing auc­tion oth­er­wise an exten­sion down with sus­tained auction
  • Con: Trad­ing right into D1 demand and new­ly formed H4 c‑dem
  • 100% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

Exact­ly as hypoth­e­sized. A trad­ed high­er test­ing val­ue through a flim­sy accep­tance where B closed as a Inside Bar. C extend­ed below IB although clos­ing as a doji. To which D just shot down extend­ing (at the time) 1.5xIBR. I for­ward-test­ed a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry off a pull­back to IB low dur­ing E which at trad­ing win­dow close would have yield­ed 1.9R. More in over­lap noise. 

What was the play of the day?

Return to Val­ue, with a test of val­ue and H4 C‑sup locat­ed just above VAL. Makes for a strong combination. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Due to IB clos­ing with­in val­ue I expect­ed a rota­tion first before con­tin­u­ing down.

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I did not take it due to trad­ing right into H4/D1 demand. D1 demand has been test­ed mul­ti­ple times but the H4 demand was new­ly formed pre­mar­ket. I took notes for my play­book which I will post in my for­ward-test­ing the­sis sub­cat­e­go­ry on my website.

DTTZ: 1st

Entry: EIther IB exten­sion down or a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry off a pull­back to IB low cou­pled with a low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day due to trad­ing right into demand.

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): Next H4 demand was at 2.4R and the trade moved 1.9R time-based. In over­lap noise price went to test that H4 demand would have yield­ed 2.4R.

What would a price action exit rule have done?

1.9R same as time-based unless in over­lap noise this went up to 2.4R

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

SL place­ment wasn’t the best but since a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry is expect­ing the same as a break of IB I expect­ed some momen­tum behind the move. SL was at 1.93134 cut­ting through the sell­ing wick in B. Entry 1.92882.

What would time-based have done?

1.9R

What could I have done better?

I did well to stay out as I wasn’t feel­ing sharp BUT the main rea­son was trad­ing right into H4/D1 demand deterred me even though there was a the­sis I found valid. Hence plac­ing a paper trade. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken.

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, Medi­um time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment, H4 bear­ish inside bar at retest of H4 QHi after rejection.
  • Pre­ferred: Move high­er to VAL extend­ing IB (pos­si­bly test­ing H4 c‑sup at PPOC) ear­ly on to strong bear­ish PA at val­ue edge to failed auction. 
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment. 
  • 90% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

As hypoth­e­sized although there was no real strong bear­ish PA and the move came in over­lap noise. 

What was the play of the day?

Return to Val­ue play. Open sen­ti­ment (below val­ue, out­side range) in an uptrend. Price extend­ed above to con­sol­i­date at val­ue edge before reversing. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

Yes there was but not entire­ly accord­ing to my trad­ing rule as the PA was rather flim­sy but I took a ‘chance’ by plac­ing a paper trade. Plus it would have been trad­ing right into demand which I did not want to risk. 

DTTZ: 1st

Entry: M30 Bear­ish Inside Bar/M15 Three Inside Down

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): 1R at D1 demand that is high in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve so could have poten­tial­ly dug deep­er where 2R would have been above H4 demand.

What would a price action exit rule have done?

0.1R

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

SL place­ment would have been great, Short xx79.53 SL xx83.64 

What would time-based have done?

0.1R

What could I have done better?

I did well to stay out and rather put on a paper trade sav­ing men­tal capital

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I felt very tired through­out the ses­sion and was eas­i­ly dis­tract­ed. It was good of me to not trade. I got­ta get my sleep back under control. 

What did I learn today?

Sleep is every­thing when it comes to focus. I need not just hours in… but qual­i­ty sleep. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Fol­low my process. Either for tak­ing a trade or being the sci­en­tist and doing my research on pos­si­ble setups through for­ward-test­ing hypotheses.

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

I think I did well today

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210426

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210426

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