How did I trade today? 20210420

20 Apr How did I trade today? 20210420

Sum­ma­ry: Learned valu­able lessons today

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Check
• Only trade the main account
  • Check
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Check
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • Check
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Check

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

BAD Trade selection

BAD Trade siz­ing or SL placement

BAD Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Fair Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 4

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Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • IB: A closed slight­ly with­in val­ue, B trad­ed low­er clos­ing with­in value
  • C: Extend­ed below IB
    • Short 1.93590, SL 1.93840, TP 1.93030
    • Closed as a Bull Engulf tak­ing out SL ‑1R
  • D: I reversed the trade due to the H4 demand and M30 bull engulf fail­ing auc­tion expect­ing a quick run to IB high and pos­si­bly a Neu­tral Day
    • Long 1.93847, SL 1.93597, TP 1.94100
    • Closed as an Invert­ed Ham­mer and M15 Bear Engulf (on the hour) and I grasshop­pered out of the trade at ‑0.4R
    • Due to mis­man­age­ment of FX syn­er­gy and risk allo­ca­tion cal­cu­la­tion I risked more than need­ed and this loss turned into a ‑1R loss tak­ing me out for the day at ‑2R
  • E: E pro­ceed­ed to extend IB high form­ing a neu­tral day and clos­ing as a M30 RBR, trade would have hit 1R
  • F: Made HHs 
  • G: Didn’t make a HH but closed bullish
  • H: Took out LTF sup­ply and trad­ed high­er, H4 closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar with long buy­ing wick

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment and a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 narrative 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion Up
  • Con: IB exten­sion down
  • 80% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I was not aligned well ini­tial­ly with the mar­ket nar­ra­tive. Price had accept­ed val­ue dur­ing IB but there was a H4 demand right at VAH. Nonethe­less, I trad­ed right into it and and got stopped out. Then I went long as per Hypo 2 and took myself out on the first M15 Bear Engulf (on the hour) after which the trade went in my intend­ed favor and hit 1.1R at the time of this writing.

What was the play of the day?

Due to the H4 demand at VAH I should not have gone with the Val­ue Accep­tance play. This was stu­pid and I should have known bet­ter. The play of the day was a Return to Value.

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

I was right on the out­come but I could have moved Hypo 2 to be Hypo 1 if I had ini­tial­ly put the H4 c‑dem on my Mar­ket Pro­file chart which I hadn’t at the time. Nonethe­less, I could have been more care­ful in my pre­mar­ket prep as well. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty and I did take it. Ini­tial­ly I took the wrong one. Then took the right one but took myself out at a loss. 

DTTZ: 1st

Entry: Bull Engulf close of C, ini­ti­at­ed in D

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): no H4 sup­ply in the way

What would a price action exit rule have done?

Due to cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule I would have tak­en a 1R win. Oth­er­wise a 0.5R at M15 Bear Engulf dur­ing G.

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

SL place­ment was okay due to being under the formation

What would time-based have done?

1.3R

What could I have done better?

I could have not freaked out and grasshop­pered out of the trade. I could have not giv­en weight to the val­ue accep­tance due to H4 demand right at VAH being a strong set­up for a bounce. I could have hypoth­e­sized a pos­si­ble exten­sion below to failed auc­tion scenario. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I did­n’t feel good and that should have been a sign that I was in the wrong trade. I get this a lot. I have a calm­ness when in a good trade win or loss. Take it on the chin and on to the next.

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Noth­ing I hypothesized

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

First of all, I should have been more care­ful. I haven’t been sleep­ing well at all this last week due to a loss in the fam­i­ly. We have been busy with all kinds of cer­e­monies etc and it real­ly fucked up my sleep­ing rou­tine. I thought it didn’t get me as much but still last night I did not sleep well. Took a nap today thought I’d be okay but I did feel like going on tilt slight­ly. For these cir­cum­stances I think I did okay… Even though I lost 2R today. 

Ini­tial­ly I had for­got­ten to draw the H4 demand line on my mar­ket pro­file chart and thus when ini­ti­at­ing a short off IB exten­sion low it wasn’t there. After I noticed it I still let the trade on think­ing we have a val­ue accep­tance plus IB exten­sion low giv­ing more con­fir­ma­tion of a short term short bias. I was wrong. Price turned around and left a buy­ing tail and moved high­er form­ing a neu­tral day. 

What did I learn today?

That I should have been more mind­ful of this rule: 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING. I write it in BOLD CAPS as well but still wasn’t mind­ful of it. This is where oth­er rules like risk siz­ing and max­i­mum allowed trades a day can fur­ther help you from destroy­ing your­self. Which today saved me probably. 

Anoth­er thing I learned that after a Failed Auc­tion a M15 Bear Engulf not clos­ing with­in demand and form­ing a M30 invert­ed ham­mer is not an exit sig­nal. I should have stayed with the trade and at least pock­et­ed the 1R. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Stay the course and fol­low my process. Can’t be our best each and every­day that’s why we have rules in place to pro­tect our­selves from our­selves. I did well to quit after the 2nd trade as I was obvi­ous­ly not in the right state of mind. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Get neg­a­tive. This is the life I choose to fol­low. This is what I need to go through. And I will go through it again. I am here to become the BEST DAY TRADER I CAN BE. Period. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I fucked up but at least I fol­lowed my max­i­mum allot­ted trades rule to pre­vent any fur­ther dam­age to my account.

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210420

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210420

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