How did I trade today? 20210415

Sum­ma­ry: Mean Rever­sion through Failed Auc­tion with near­by H4/D1 demand

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Going run­ning now
• Only trade the main account
  • No trades taken
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Check
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • No trades taken
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • No trades taken

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Fair Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: IB tra­versed 0.5xASR down almost tak­ing out W1 demand
  • C: Closed with­in IB as an invert­ed bull­ish hammer
  • D: Extend­ed below IB tak­ing out W1 demand and H4 swing low, look­ing for a pos­si­ble bounce up
    • Closed as a DBD, no bounce (yet)
  • E: Here is that bounce after W1 demand got popped as E closed as a Bull engulf (clos­ing pos­si­bly too deep into IB fail­ing auc­tion though) with a very weak buy­ing tail. For­ward-test­ing a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion down. Although D1 UKC in UT right there as well as stretched far away from D1 VWAP so a pos­si­ble bounce is possible.
    • Last time in a sim­i­lar set­ting there was a Bull Engulf clos­ing as a weak failed auc­tion and not con­fi­dent­ly with­in IB. Still putting a Paper Trade at the close of the bull engulf to see if that would have been a good entry as that is what hap­pened last time. Bull Engulf fol­lowed by a con­tin­u­a­tion in ini­tial direction.
  • F: Closed as an invert­ed ham­mer inside bar
  • G: Closed as a RBR
  • H: H would have stopped out that paper trade entry off Bull Engulf in E TPO
    • Closed as an Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick, H4 Ham­mer at H4-C‑D 1.92354
  • I: Closed as a RBR
  • J: Tra­versed to IB High and extend­ed above form­ing a Neu­tral Day

• GOLD
  • IB: B closed with­in val­ue although not too con­fi­dent­ly I feel. 
  • C: Extend­ed below IB and closed as a hammer
  • D: Tra­vers­ing back up to IB high and clos­ing there as a Morn­ing Star
  • E: extend­ed above IB clos­ing as a grave­stone doji
  • F: closed as a weak evening star
  • G: doji
  • H: Closed as a DBD
  • I: Closed as an Inside Bar
  • J: Extend­ed below IB again 

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment tra­vers­ing to mean rever­sion lev­el, medium/higher time­frame demand
  • Pre­ferred: strong bull­ish price action, IB exten­sion up or failed auction
  • Con: H4/D1 narrative
  • 100% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

Price extend­ed below IB first before fail­ing auc­tion through a Bull Engulf dur­ing E TPO. 

What was the play of the day?

A mean rever­sion. At the open the mean rever­sion imbal­ance wasn’t ful­filled yet so price tra­versed low­er tak­ing out W1 demand before revers­ing high­er through a bull engulf fail­ing auc­tion. What fol­lowed was a con­tin­ued RBR for the remain­der of the session. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Hypo 2 played out although I wasn’t too far off hypoth­e­siz­ing hypo 1 trend con­tin­u­a­tion to play out as W1 demand did get tak­en out. There was no fol­low-through though. D1 UKC in UT as well as over-exten­sion below D1 VWAP might have been odd enhancers here. AS well as the bull engulf clos­ing deep­er into IB fail­ing auc­tion. I was for­ward-test­ing a con­tin­u­a­tion play after a medium/high SD zone gets tak­en out. As always I took notes for my playbook.

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I did not take it as W1 demand had just tak­en out and there was a very weak buy­ing tail to con­sid­er a long on the Bull Engulf fail­ing auction. 

DTTZ: slight­ly lat­er than 1st DTTZ

Entry: 2nd chance entry off Bull Engulf in E would have been a good entry

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): IB high would have been 1.5R

What would a price action exit rule have done?

M15 Bear Engulf in G would have closed the trade at 0.4–0.5R

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

SL place­ment on 2nd chance entry would have been good

What would time-based have done?

Slight­ly over 1R

What could I have done better?

I did well today to for­ward test a the­sis I am work­ing on as well as not take a rever­sal due to weak con­di­tions even though there was a H4 and D1 demand present. I didn’t like the weak buy­ing tail as well as W1 demand just being tak­en out. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Nei­ther of my 2 hypos played out but I would have to say it was a mix­ture of both that I nor­mal­ly dub: Respon­sive Activity

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

There was an ear­ly flim­sy accep­tance of val­ue dur­ing B. What fol­lowed was an exten­sion down in C to then trade high­er and extend above IB form­ing a neu­tral day in E. Then a mean­ing­less DBD for the remain­der of the session.

What was the play of the day?

Noth­ing really

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Addressed this above. I feel I could say Hypo 1 or 2 played out although that is not what I had in mind and thus there would have been a need for a Hypo 3: respon­sive activ­i­ty although that might not be the cor­rect term as well. Any­ways… didn’t see what I want­ed to see. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

No and No

What could I have done better?

I did well to stay out

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

Did well here although I have been tired all week. Part­ly due to a loss in the fam­i­ly chang­ing my sleep rou­tine and part­ly because of my diet mess­ing up my sleep cycle as well. Got­ta get back into my nor­mal rou­tine although it might take anoth­er week with the funer­al and all…. 

What did I learn today?

That I am good with for­ward-test­ing hypoth­e­sis when they don’t fit my trad­ing rule and that I am some­what unmoved by any of it… The mar­ket is what the mar­ket is… it giveth and fuck­ing taketh when­ev­er it wants… Today it giveth noth­ing for me 🙂 Well… Not any­thing I want­ed to trade. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Be patient and wait for a good setup. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

At one point I just got up and took my motor­cy­cle into the moun­tains for an hour. Luck­i­ly I live close to one 🙂 I shouldn’t feel like I have to trade and even though I didn’t feel like I had to trade…. Today was about that I don’t need to sit here at my desk if I just want to take a break. Trad­ing being my pas­sion, I should take note of the fact I don’t want to be here… When nor­mal­ly I always want to be here… My gf gets jealous 🙂

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did well today

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210415

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210415

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