How did I trade today? 20210414

Sum­ma­ry: For­ward-test­ing trad­ing ideas is satisfying

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Weights, no cardio
• Only trade the main account
  • No trades taken
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Check
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • No trades taken
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • No trades taken

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Fair Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: M30 con­sol­i­da­tion at M30 VWAP in DT
  • C: Con­sol­i­da­tion con­tin­ued through inside Bar, for­ward test­ing a large imbal­ance, H4 con­tin­u­a­tion to pos­si­ble D1 phase 4 the­sis negat­ing H4 QLo and W1 demand
  • D: Boom… price tra­versed 1.5R below IB exhaust­ing ADR. Still did well to sit this one out as it was trad­ing right into W1 demand.
  • E: CLosed mak­ing LL, no reac­tion from demand (yet)
  • F: Poor Low formed while F is retrac­ing to fill the gap between E and D. Gap still there and made a LL
  • G: Made LLs
  • H: Made LLs
  • I: Closed as an Inside Bar at D1 demand

• GOLD
  • IB: A closed as a Bear Engulf, B as a doji
  • C: Closed as a Morn­ing Star
  • D: Closed as an Inside bar with sell­ing wick
  • E: Closed as Three Out­side Down extend­ing slight­ly below IB
  • F: Made a slight LL
  • G: Closed down with­out mak­ing a new low
  • H: Closed asa doji mak­ing a poor low
  • I: Closed as a Morn­ing Star

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 con­tin­u­a­tion in D1 phase 4 narrative
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish price action, IB exten­sion down reach­ing for D1 demand, exhaust­ing ADR
  • Con: W1 demand below
  • 100% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

There was a momen­tum exten­sion down in D TPO to which I put a paper trade to for­ward test a poten­tial play I had seen before. Not sure what to call it yet but I’ll come up with some­thing dur­ing review. After exhaust­ing ADR price kept mak­ing LLs and a time-based close would have yield­ed 3.1R.

What was the play of the day?

Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion. D1 Bear­ish Inside Bar, H4 phase 4, large imbal­ance at the open sig­nal­ing strength, IB exten­sion down tak­ing out LTF demand then exhaust­ing ADR right into W1/D1 demand. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was. Even though Hypo 3 was my most like­ly sce­nario based on my own per­son­al expe­ri­ence I thought to put a mean rever­sion as Hypo 1 as I had not con­firmed for myself a large imbal­ance in this set­ting before. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was none based on my cur­rent trad­ing rules although I did doc­u­ment a Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion set­up for my playbook. 

DTTZ: 1st

Entry: Momen­tum IB extension

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): 1R at W1 demand 2.5R at D1

What would a price action exit rule have done?

2.5R based off M5 exit

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Would have been good. Entry at x.xx2x, SL at x.xx48 above IB and formation

What would time-based have done?

3.1R

What could I have done better?

I did well to observe this par­tic­u­lar set­ting where I would be trad­ing right into a W1/D1 demand area. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 3 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Large imbal­ance at the open
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish price action tak­ing out LTF demand with sus­tained auction
  • Con: H4 bull engulf with long buy­ing wick (2nd chance entry D1 bull Engulf)
  • 70% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I actu­al­ly think it was more Hypo 2 respon­sive activ­i­ty play­ing out due to the mar­ket not real­ly mak­ing a move due to being stuck between new­ly devel­oped demand and the large imbal­ance as it is. 

What was the play of the day?

No real play.

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

I was although the momen­tum I was hop­ing for Hypo 1 to have did not come and thus moves on to Hypo 2 and 3

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was no oppor­tu­ni­ty under cur­rent trad­ing rules

What could I have done better?

Noth­ing. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did well although did get a bit tired again even though I did not eat heavy. Did not sleep well last night so that was prob­a­bly it. 

What did I learn today?

For­ward-test­ing a trad­ing idea is almost as sat­is­fy­ing as actu­al­ly exe­cut­ing a trade on it. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Only exe­cute when I have con­fi­dence in a play.

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

For­ward-test trad­ing ideas I keep see­ing recur­ring in the markets. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did well today

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210414

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210414

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