How did I trade today? 20210413

Sum­ma­ry: Lack of clar­i­ty = no trades. Sim­ple as that. 

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Going run­ning in a bit even though tired
• Only trade the main account
  • No trades taken
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Check
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • No trades taken
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • No trades taken

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Bad Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: B formed a Bear Engulf
  • C: C trad­ed extend­ing low­er and clos­ing above VAH
  • D: Closed as a ham­mer with long buy­ing wick hav­ing tra­versed through val­ue but clos­ing above. 
  • E: Poten­tial con­sol­i­da­tion at VAH if price closed above VAH again leav­ing an okay buy­ing tail in D, best opp would be a con­tin­ued con­sol­i­da­tion in F cre­at­ing more TPO struc­ture before the rever­sal in G tak­ing out sin­gle prints in C. 
    • Closed con­fi­dent­ly with­in value
  • F: Closed as a Bull Engulf tak­ing a few sin­gle prints in C out. Con­fused in the nar­ra­tive so will not take any trades. 
  • G: Closed as a Bear Engulf
  • H: Closed as an Inside Bar, H4 Bear ENgulf clos­ing below H4 demand base level

• GOLD
  • IB: A closed as a bull engulf, B trad­ed higher
  • C: Extend­ed slight­ly over IB and closed as a spin­ning top with­in IB
  • D: closed slight­ly high­er at IB edge high
  • E: Made HHs clos­ing above IB
  • F: Closed as a Bear Engulf fail­ing auction
    • Was con­sid­er­ing a Sell Lim­it order at 1727.917 but this late into the ses­sion with an IB exten­sion up and under­ly­ing H4 demand with LTF demand as well as price would be form­ing a Neu­tral Day I am not tak­ing this trade
  • G: Closed as a Doji with longer sell­ing wick
  • H: Closed as a Drag­on­fly Doji, H4 Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Negat­ing Hypo 1 would be an accep­tance of value
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly acceptance 
  • Con: D1 sup­ply base hit
  • 90%

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

Accep­tance wasn’t as ear­ly but fair­ly ear­ly still as price was removed from val­ue edge quite a bit. Accep­tance came with E TPO and closed above in F to then turn around and close below in G. Did not have a lot of align­ment fit­ting any trad­ing rules on entry so just decid­ed to stay out. 

What was the play of the day?

A M30 Swing Rever­sal that turned into a Val­ue Acceptance.

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Hit­ting the D1 sup­ply base lev­el coin­cid­ed with D1 VWAP in UT CAR and as such more sell­ers came in push­ing price low­er. Almighty VWAP won over the base lev­el as a base lev­el usu­al­ly indi­cat­ed more move­ment into said direction. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

Not based off my trad­ing plan and thus I did not take a trade. 

What could I have done better?

I did well to take it easy as I am a bit tired and I lacked clar­i­ty and con­fi­dence in a par­tic­u­lar set­up. Did well to stay out. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades taken

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 demand, large imbal­ance at the open
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action extend­ing IB on momen­tum with sus­tained auc­tion to val­ue edge
  • Con: New­ly formed H4 c‑sup right in the way giv­ing sub­par Prof­it tar­get (1R)
  • 90% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

Even though there was an exten­sion up in C TPO there was no fol­low-through to the move until lat­er dur­ing I TPO price made a HH. Still did well to stay out due to new­ly formed H4 c‑sup being too close to entry. 

What was the play of the day?

Not much of a play to be hon­est. Not any­thing that fit my trad­ing rules. I had ini­tial­ly put in a buy stop order at 1728.827 in case of a momen­tum exten­sion up. Then due to new­ly formed H4 c‑sup only giv­ing a pos­si­ble 1R tar­get I took it off. Luck­i­ly as I would have got­ten stopped out. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Hypo 1 was the more obvi­ous play just price action and prof­it mar­gin did not allow for a good trade entry.

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

Not one based on price action and prof­it mar­gin not allow­ing for a good trade entry.

What could I have done better?

I did well to stay out and observe. Even when tired I am hap­py I did not do any­thing rash and still fol­lowed my plan. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I was already feel­ing tired going into the ses­sion as I was deal­ing with per­son­al stuff last night. I did well to still fol­low my plan and stay as objec­tive as I pos­si­bly could. Bet­ter miss a trade than to be sor­ry. Even though there were no good trades fit­ting my rules today anyway. 

What did I learn today?

That I can remain some­what objec­tive and can under­stand that when I lack con­fi­dence it is because there is no trade for me. Usu­al­ly some­thing ‘jumps out’ at me and I dou­ble check if I am right then I enter. If noth­ing jumps out I just don’t trade. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Stay the course and fol­low my own path. Fin­twit is full of ‘god-like traders’ that could not com­pre­hend the work I put in. Then again… everyone’s on their own path. My path is to actu­al­ly be a trad­er. No judge­ment even though it sounds like it. Well… maybe a lit­tle 🙂 It is just that this is fuck­ing hard work. For peo­ple to come in dur­ing a bull mar­ket think­ing they are smart because they got lucky or Furus to feed off fol­low­ers offer­ing sig­nal ser­vices and such is just plain wrong…. This shit is hard peo­ple…. If any­thing you will learn a lot about your­self. If you are not will­ing to do so. I am sor­ry (kin­da, but not real­ly) you will nev­er become a trader. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

I did well today. Fol­lowed my trad­ing plan even though being tired. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did well today. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210413

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210413

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