How did I trade today? 20210412

Sum­ma­ry: Align­ment with mar­ket con­di­tions doesn’t nec­es­sar­i­ly mean you have to trade

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Not today
• Only trade the main account
  • No trade(s) taken
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Check
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • No trade(s) taken
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Check

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: IB tra­versed above VAHand took out LTF and H4 sup­ply test­ing H4 VWAP in DT, hit­ting ADR 0.5 high. IB range 0.5xASR, trad­ing mid M30 swing
  • C: Extend­ed above IB tech­ni­cal­ly reject­ing val­ue, since price H4 swing I do not feel too con­fi­dent in this trade. Although I am test­ing a the­sis on an open with­in val­ue with no pri­or brack­et­ing range. Also a D1 sup­ply base is above and before reach­ing it could cause sell­ing pres­sure. Although there is ADR exhaus­tion right above LTF sup­ply if hit there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move as it is still ear­ly into the ses­sion. Price did reject M30 QLO premarket.
    • Closed above IB tak­ing out LTF sup­ply near­ing ADR exhaustion
  • D: Con­sid­er­ing a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry (due to a poor high hav­ing formed and look­ing like a sus­tained auc­tion) at a retest of IB edge high although M5 show­ing pos­si­ble signs of a rever­sal (I can look at M5 due to the open with­in val­ue sentiment).
    • D closed as an Inside Bar, M15 Bear Engulf and pos­si­ble Base, pos­si­ble low/medium activ­i­ty day
  • E: Closed as A Three Inside Out (with poor high) fail­ing auc­tion as per hypo 3 (vari­a­tion to Hypo 2), although due to the poor high (0 sell­ing tail) I will not go short here. ALso SL place­ment wouldn’t be the best as it is cut­ting through for­ma­tion although with a failed auc­tion some momen­tum behind the move is expect­ed. DTTZ is slight­ly off as well. 
  • F: Closed trad­ing low­er not ful­ly to IB low
  • G: Closed as a Bull Engulf
  • H: Closed as a Drag­on­fly doji, H4 closed high­er after tak­ing out supply

• GOLD
  • IB: A closed as a Bear Engulf, B closed as an Inside Bar with long sell­ing wick, trad­ing mid M30 swing, IB range 0.3xASR
  • C: Extend­ed below IB clos­ing as a DBD below IB and H4 QHi. Also a poor low is formed.
  • D: Closed as an Inside bar with longer sell­ing wick and Poor Low
  • E: Closed as a Three Inside Up (with poor low, inter­est­ing the invert­ed cor­re­la­tion with GBPNZD) near­ing IB edge high but no exten­sion up form­ing a Neu­tral Day (yet).
  • F: moved high­er extend­ing IB and form­ing a Neu­tral Day
    • Closed as an Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick, M15 Bear Engulf with no good prof­it target
  • G: Closed as a Doji leav­ing a sell­ing tail in F
  • H: Closed as a M30 DBD

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
  • Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
    • Nar­ra­tive: Last Month clos­ing on it’s high, pos­si­ble W1 pull­back to new W1 supply
    • Pre­ferred: Strong close above VAH coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion up, sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF sup­ply, exhaust­ing ADR ear­ly on.
    • Con: H4 sup­ply and VWAP in DT in the way
    • 90% cor­rect
    • There was no exhaus­tion of ADR ear­ly on. Instead a reversal. 
  • Hypo 3 — M30 Swing Reversal 
    • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 2
    • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up, bear­ish price action rever­sal to failed auction
    • 100% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I did well here. Hypo 2 played out first with an exten­sion in C and then a fail­ure to push high­er and tran­si­tion to Hypo 3 with a rever­sal and failed auc­tion. Even though I was aligned with the mar­ket nar­ra­tive I did not like what I saw and did not exe­cute any trades. 

Hypo 1 I did not feel con­fi­dent as it was mid H4 swing and I kin­da missed that Price had reject­ed M30 QLo ini­tial­ly. So I let it go. 

Hypo 2 I did not feel like tak­ing due to the Poor High (as this in my expe­ri­ence gets tak­en out a lot) plus H4 sup­ply had been tak­en out in a val­ue rejec­tion up sentiment. 

What was the play of the day?

The Val­ue Rejec­tion Up play even though an entry off IB break would have only yield­ed 0.1R at the 2nd DTTZ there was anoth­er move high­er with again would have only yield­ed 0.5R at time-based cut off. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

I was right on the out­come and no it was not Hypo 1. I believe an open with­in val­ue sen­ti­ment would have been more valid if there would have been a brack­et­ing range. Since there was none and it was the first open with­in I believe con­di­tions are more con­ducive for a poten­tial val­ue rejec­tion if medium/larger time­frames allows such narrative. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There were oppor­tu­ni­ties but I am going ahead and say they did not fit my trad­ing rules and thus there we none. Either though were con­di­tions on a poten­tial entry or lack of prof­it target. 

What could I have done better?

I did real­ly well tak­ing notes and try­ing to under­stand my edge bet­ter. Good job. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
  • Hypo 1 — Return to Value
    • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble H4 DBD in line with D1 Bear­ish Inside Bar return­ing to D1 base level
    • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish Price Action with IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auction 
    • Con: W1/H4 demand below at H4 200MA in DT
    • 90% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

There was no sus­tained auc­tion and even though it extend­ed below IB on momen­tum price quick­ly reversed and formed a Neu­tral day to then con­tin­ue low­er again. 

What was the play of the day?

At the 2nd DTTZ there was a LTF entry short which would not have yield­ed much so will go ahead and say there wasn’t a good oppor­tu­ni­ty today. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was.

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

No there wasn’t

What could I have done better?

I did well today observing.

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I got slight­ly tired a bit lat­er into the ses­sion but noth­ing too much

What did I learn today?

I don’t have to trade if I don’t like what I see: ie. doesn’t fit my trad­ing rules

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Focus on exe­cut­ing where I have a sta­tis­ti­cal edge. Don’t need to trade every­thing even though I was very well aligned with the mar­kets today. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

I did well today so fuck off 🙂 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

Yes I did. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210412

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210412

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