How did I trade today? 20210330

Sum­ma­ry: Grow­ing con­fi­dence through reaf­firm­ing knowledge 

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only trade the main account
  • No trades taken
• Focus on time-based exits
  • No trades taken
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last half hour of trad­ing window
  • No trades tak­en. Did well here to wait for the 2nd DTTZ before look­ing for pos­si­ble entries. 

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: M30 RBR
  • C: Extend­ed above IB. Even though due to open sen­ti­ment it is more prob­a­ble for a mean rever­sion first I believe the ‘safer’ oppor­tu­ni­ty is a return to val­ue to where new­ly formed D1 c‑sup is. Espe­cial­ly this late into the month I’d like to be more risk averse. 
    • Closed with­in IB as a Grave­stone Doji, need one more TPO close for fur­ther direc­tion­al clue
  • D: Closed as a M30 RBR with sell­ing wick
  • E: M15 bear engulf (on the hour), M30 Inside bar with sell­ing wick (not mak­ing HH) although close is right at IB edge (thus a poten­tial weak failed auc­tion) and thus might still be a sus­tained auc­tion. Not much of a sell­ing tail. Might have to give it anoth­er TPO close. 
  • F: Devel­op­ing 4th TPO struc­ture build in the mak­ing. Closed as a slight bull engulf although not the strongest. Could be a con­sol­i­da­tion. Break higher/lower could come by close of G. H1 doji
  • G: closed as a spin­ning top with slight­ly longer buy­ing wick
  • H: Closed break­ing high­er from con­sol­i­da­tion mak­ing HH, H4 Three Out­side Up

• GOLD
  • IB: trad­ed low­er 0.9xASR
  • C: closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar
  • D: Closed as a consolidation
  • E: Closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion with sell­ing wick
  • F: Closed as a DBD
  • G: Extend­ed below IB clos­ing as a drag­on­fly doji, M15 flim­sy bull engulf. Pos­si­ble M30 DBD in the making
  • H: Extend­ed down and closed below IB as DBD, H4 Marubozu close at D1 c‑dem

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 50MA in UT, D1 base demand level
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish Price action, IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auction
  • Con: Pos­si­ble H4 phase 4, D1 bear engulf
  • 100% cor­rect
  • There was  a doji extend­ing over IB dur­ing C that formed a RBR in D. Fol­lowed by a con­sol­i­da­tion not fail­ing auc­tion and thus sus­tained and H broke higher. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

There was an exten­sion dur­ing C to the upside and what fol­lowed was a low/medium ini­tia­tive sus­tained auc­tion up. 

What was the play of the day?

A mean rever­sion play in line with the open sen­ti­ment. Exten­sion in C fol­lowed by a low/medium ini­tia­tive day. Nor­mal Vari­a­tion Day

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

I was right on the out­come and it was Hypo 1. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I did not take it. I thought the most probable/safer play would have been a mean rever­sion to D1 c‑sup near VAL fol­lowed by a rever­sal although this did not come through­out my trad­ing window. 

DTTZ: C extend­ed above IB. Entry off IB break would have been a good entry.

Entry: IB break out entry

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): There was some LTF sup­ply although IB tra­versed 47 pips and so there was 42 left in the ses­sion if there was to be an exten­sion up (prob­a­bilis­ti­cal­ly speak­ing). This would have been about 1.8R 

What would a price action exit rule have done?

There was a M15 bear engulf although clos­ing right at IB edge I would have giv­en it more time. Oth­er­wise this would have about scratched the trade. Time-based would have net­ted 1R.

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Sl place­ment would not have been the best as it was cut­ting through the for­ma­tion. How­ev­er, due to the nature of the entry this would have been okay. 

What would time-based have done?

Time-based would have net­ted 1R. Over­lap noise 2.5R.

What could I have done better?

I feel okay with not hav­ing tak­en the trade. I didn’t wan­na risk any­thing although I knew it was the right play to go with. This late in the month I didn’t wan­na take any chances. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades taken

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 phase 4 tak­ing out D1 demand
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down on momen­tum with sus­tained auction.
  • Con: D1 demand underneath 
  • 80% cor­rect
  • Price con­sol­i­dat­ed for a while and final­ly extend­ed down dur­ing G. I TPO exhaust­ed ADR.

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

The move came dur­ing the 2nd DTTZ through an exten­sion below the already wide IB range. It exhaust­ed ADR hit­ting D1 c‑dem in what looks like a nor­mal or nor­mal vari­a­tion day. 

What was the play of the day?

Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion. After some con­sol­i­da­tion with­in IB at the low­er half there was a DBD fol­lowed by an exten­sion below. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Hypo 1. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

I did not as the IB range was very wide so was the huge imbal­ance at the open. I want­ed to sit out and take notes as this is one of the cir­cum­stances I am objec­tive­ly forward-testing. 

What would a price action exit rule have done?

DTTZ: move came at 2nd DTTZ

Entry:  M30 DBD and wait for an exten­sion below IB could have been a good entry

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): Although IB had already tra­versed a full ASR due tot he huge imbal­ance and wide IB one could have the­o­rized a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move due to the strength.

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Stan­dard SL although not the best as it would have cut through formation. 

What would time-based have done?

0.9R. 2R in over­lap noise. 

What could I have done better?

I did well to stay out and observe and learn for next time. I have only observed this par­tic­u­lar event a hand­ful of times.

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade tak­en. Feel­ing good about it. 

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did well here although I got a bit snoozy again…. I think there might be some­thing off with my diet. Will fur­ther investigate. 

What did I learn today?

That I am recon­firm­ing or affirm­ing my pre-exist­ing knowl­edge to build up more con­fi­dence. Fur­ther­more, that I feel that this is more impor­tant than actu­al­ly clos­ing in a prof­it for the month. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Fol­low my voice. I did great here. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Doubt myself. There aren’t many that put as much time into this as me. That is what makes the difference. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did great. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210330

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210330

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