How did I trade today? 20210329

Sum­ma­ry: Sin­gle Print Fade after tak­ing out W1 supply

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Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only trade the main account
  • No trades taken
• Focus on time-based exits
  • No trades taken
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last half hour of trad­ing window
  • No trades taken

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: Trad­ed higher
  • C: Shot up tak­ing out W1 Demand quite quick­ly on momen­tum near­ing ADR exhaustion
  • D: Long uncon­firmed se.ling tail, M15 Evening Star, M30 Inside Bar with long sell­ing wick
  • E: E start­ed tak­ing out sin­gle prints in C although due to the momen­tum behind the move and tak­ing out of W1 sup­ply I’d like more con­flu­ence of a rever­sal before going short. Although it is at D1-C‑S 1.98138.
    • Closed as a M30 Three Out­side Down
  • F: con­tin­ued down tak­ing out sin­gle prints in C no arrival at IB high (yet)
    • Closed low­er, M15 Inside Bar 
  • G: con­tin­ued low­er tak­ing out sin­gle prints reach­ing IB high
  • H: Trad­ed low­er with­in IB, H4 Invert­ed hammer

• GOLD
  • IB: Formed a bull engulf then Inside Bar
  • C: Weak Three Out­side Down extend­ing below IB and VAL
  • D: Trad­ed down but closed at IB low
  • E: Closed as an Inside Bar
  • F: Closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion still with­in value
  • G: Closed as a Bull Engulf with­in IB
  • H: Moved high­er, H4 Consolidation

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, medi­um time­frame narrative 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action, IB exten­sion up with a sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF sup­ply (coin­cid­ing with tak­ing out M30 Q point). Mon­i­tor for a take out of W1 Sup­ply End 1.98047
  • Con: Bear­ish Inside Bar on D1
  • 100% cor­rect
• Hypo 3 — Vari­a­tion to 1
  • Fail­ure to take out W1 sup­ply, TPO struc­ture build and price action con­firm­ing a reversal.
  • 70% cor­rect
  • Price did end up tak­ing out W1 sup­ply but then pro­ceed­ed to reverse as ASR was exhaust­ed (not ADR). LTF showed a rever­sal and price con­tin­ued to take out Sin­gle Prints in C.

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I did well here as 2 of my hypos played out. Price shot up exhaust­ing ASR although not ADR hit­ting a D1 sup­ply after tak­ing out W1 sup­ply and start­ed to reverse (which hap­pens a lot). 

What was the play of the day?

Swing Rever­sal at D1 sup­ply with a Sin­gle Print Fade. Price extend­ed above IB exhaust­ing ASR (not ADR) before hit­ting sup­ply and start­ed to reverse with a sin­gle print fade con­form­ing the direc­tion. There was no TPO struc­ture build at the time. Only a sell­ing tail in D con­firmed through price action on M30/M15.

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Right on both hypo 1 and 3. Although the best play would have been 3. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

I did not take the oppor­tu­ni­ty as hypo1 trad­ed right into sup­ply. Hypo 3 I felt like there should be a bit more con­flu­ence before get­ting involved but now I know that a D1 sup­ply, M30/M15 price action rever­sal after ASR got exhaust­ed and con­tin­ued to take out sin­gle prints would have been enough fo a confluence. 

DTTZ: Play hap­pened at the first DTTZ

Entry: Best entry would have been the M15 three out­side down

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): Due to the nature of a sin­gle print fade the prof­it tar­get is a bit less of a fac­tor although the trade would have done 1.7 at IB edge.

What would a price action exit rule have done?

1.7R at IB edge

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Would have been good on the M15 entry as it was above formation

What would time-based have done?

1.9R

What could I have done better?

I could have tak­en the trade but as I lacked the con­fi­dence I just let it go and doc­u­ment­ed the move. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket /  Val­ue Rejec­tion Failure
  • Nar­ra­tive: Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Pre­ferred: Play off LTF SD and ADR levels
  • 100% cor­rect
  • Price extend­ed below IB but not clos­ing below VAL and thus there was no rejec­tion. There was a LTF demand and price reversed back up. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I did well to assess mar­ket con­text due to not clos­ing below VAL even though there was an IB exten­sion low. 

What was the play of the day?

Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket / Val­ue Rejec­tion Fail­ure. Price extend­ed below IB not clos­ing below VAL and thus the near­by LTF demand was a good bounce lev­el for price to reverse back up.

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was but I did not take it as I was very much focused on GBPNZD tak­ing notes. Plus want­ed to take it easy today. 

DTTZ: 2nd DTTZ 

Entry: Best option would have been off M5 Bull Engulf wait for a tran­si­tion to M15 bull­ish con­fir­ma­tion in this case a Three Out­side Up.

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or congestion): 

What would a price action exit rule have done?

0.7R

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Would have been good. Stan­dard size below formation. 

What would time-based have done?

0.7R

What could I have done better?

I did well today

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did fair­ly well although a lit­tle less sharp today

What did I learn today?

That I can sit on my hands. Observe and take notes. I know when my con­fi­dence is good and I spot an oppor­tu­ni­ty I will take the trade. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Be patient

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Force a trade.

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did well today

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210329

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210329

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