How did I trade today? 20210325

Sum­ma­ry: Fog­gy head today

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only trade the main account
  • No trades taken
• Focus on time-based exits
  • No trades taken
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window
  • No trades taken

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Bad Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: B closed as a Bull Engulf slight­ly above VAH
  • C: Closed as an Inside bar with small sell­ing wick react­ing off M30 QHi
  • D: Closed as a Three Inside Down
  • E: Closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar
  • F: moved high­er mak­ing HHs but closed with­in IB again with a long sell­ing wick
  • G: Moved and closed above VAH and IB
  • H: Closed as a Bear Engulf with­in IB, H4 Bull Engulf with sell­ing wick

• GOLD
  • IB: Closed as a Ham­mer with buy­ing wick test­ing val­ue, M15 close with­in value
  • C: W1 c‑dem and LTF demand with­in val­ue makes short­ing risky
    • Closed trad­ing down although weak and some­what neutral
  • D: Closed fur­ther down with longer buy­ing wick
  • E: Closed as a bull­ish spin­ning top
  • F: Grad­u­al­ly mov­ing down
  • G: Grad­u­al­ly mov­ing down
  • H: closed as a ham­mer with buy­ing wick touch­ing W1 C‑dem (and extend­ing IB down) and clos­ing above LTF demand. H4 Three Out­side Down.

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
  • Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
    • Nar­ra­tive: H4 price slow down, open inside value
    • Pre­ferred: Play off near­by LTF SD and ADR levels.
    • Con: Trend is up
    • 100% cor­rect
  • Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
    • Nar­ra­tive: Trend is up, larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment
    • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action coin­cid­ing with IB break above VAH, sus­tained auc­tion, although might see a failed auc­tion due to over­head supply. 
    • Con: hit D1 supply
    • 80% cor­rect
    • Tech­ni­cal­ly there was a val­ue rejec­tion up due to the close above VAH and exten­sion from IB. Price how­ev­er retraced back to VAL and then pro­ceed­ed to climb high­er again mak­ing HHs.
    • EDIT: I see that I had hypoth­e­sized a poten­tial failed auc­tion due to over­head D1 sup­ply which played out per­fect­ly before con­tin­u­ing higher.

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

When IB closed above VAH and then C TPO extend­ed IB price had tech­ni­cal­ly reject­ed val­ue. How­ev­er, due to near-prox­im­i­ty to D1 sup­ply above I did not want to go long here. This was good as D then E closed down form­ing a Three Out­side Down only to reverse high­er again at M30 QLo and LTF demand. The LTF demand at val­ue edge above a H4 base lev­el I am for­ward test­ing to use as a pos­si­ble bounce point but it is still too ear­ly to say and thus still uncon­clud­ed. The real oppor­tu­ni­ty was the rever­sal dur­ing E TPO how­ev­er I did not take it due to the Three Out­side Down cre­at­ed before. Wrote these fac­tors up into my playbook. 

What was the play of the day?

A mix­ture of a val­ue rejec­tion up with a bal­anc­ing mar­ket. Trend is up so I favored longs. When price reject­ed val­ue it reversed (prob­a­bly due to D1 C‑sup) before extend­ing over val­ue again. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

I was right on both hypo 1 and 2.

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I did not take a trade. Mul­ti­ple rea­sons: 1) pre­oc­cu­pied with some­thing unre­lat­ed to trad­ing 2) hav­ing con­fu­sion in the val­ue rejec­tion vs bal­anc­ing mar­ket set­up 3) fog­gy head thus cog­ni­tive not that great today

What would a price action exit rule have done?

Slight­ly under 1R off M15 Bull­ish Inside Bar entry.

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Would have been good

What would time-based have done?

Time-based it would have been 0.6R

What could I have done better?

I think under the cir­cum­stances I did well

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades taken

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
  • Hypo 1 — Val­ue Acceptance
    • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, medi­um time­frame bear­ish sentiment
    • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance with quick follow-through
    • Con: Trad­ing right into demand
    • 90% cor­rect
    • There was no quick fol­low-through. Instead a slow grad­ual decline. IB formed a ham­mer then closed slight­ly with­in val­ue (not con­vinc­ing­ly). C TPO did. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I did well to under­stand that there was a val­ue accep­tance. How­ev­er, I did not like the prof­it tar­get due to LTF demand and W1 c‑dem right below. Hence I let the trade go and observed. 

What was the play of the day?

A val­ue accep­tance play. B formed a ham­mer then closed slight­ly with­in val­ue (not con­vinc­ing­ly). C TPO did. What fol­lowed was a slow but grad­ual decline towards W1 c‑dem and extend­ing IB down late in the ses­sion dur­ing H TPO. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

I was right but there was no good prof­it tar­get so I let it go. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was but no good prof­it tar­get so I let it go. 

What would a price action exit rule have done?

If tak­en a short at close of C TPO the trade would net­ted 0.5R at time-based close as this came before a price action exit.

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

SL place­ment would have been a few pips above M30 for­ma­tion and thus good

What would time-based have done?

0.5R after hit­ting 1.2R at max. 

What could I have done better?

Under the cir­cum­stances I did well today. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades taken.

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I felt extreme­ly fatigued today. Not sure why. I did not have a heavy meal (just a sal­ad) but it feels like I ate a piz­za or some­thing. Hope­ful­ly, it will be gone tomor­row. Regard­less, I stayed on point and tried to deduce a good play with­out tak­ing any unnec­es­sary risks. 

What did I learn today?

That I can still fol­low my plan even though my brain was cog­ni­tive­ly not the best. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Fol­low my plan.

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Wor­ry about tak­ing trades. I keep say­ing this because I can’t force my progress. I can’t force any trades. The mar­ket does not give a fly­ing fuck about me and my ‘eager­ness’ to take trades and show my ‘full potential’.

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did very well I feel. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210325

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210325

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