How did I trade today? 20210324

Sum­ma­ry: Being a stu­dent of the markets

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only trade the main account
  • No trades taken
• Focus on time-based exits
  • No trades taken
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last half hour of trad­ing window
  • No trades taken 

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: IB trad­ed down 50 pips, B closed as a Hammer
  • C: Closed as a DBD although some­what weak
  • D: Closed extend­ing below IB not tak­ing out LTF demand (near VAH)
  • E: Formed a poor low react­ing off VAH (coin­cid­ing with M30 LKC in UT after VWAP BD) retrac­ing D with­in IB to DPOC and M30 DBD C‑sup base level
    • M15 Bull Engulf was formed although not the strongest. Price con­tin­ued down and took out the poor low extend­ing (mak­ing a LL) by one TPO
    • Closed as an Inside Bar with long sell­ing wick
  • F: Closed well with­in IB
  • G: Closed as an invert­ed ham­mer touch­ing M30 QHi / M30 VWAP CAR
  • H: CLosed as a Bear Engulf, H4 Three Inside Down

• GOLD
  • IB:Traded down 49 pips, B closed as an Inside Bar 
  • C: Closed as a spin­ning top
  • D: Formed a RBR 
  • E: extend­ed and closed above IB with a sell­ing wick although auc­tion looks sus­tained although a pos­si­ble low/medium activ­i­ty day
  • F: Took out LTF and H4 sup­ply closed mak­ing HHs
  • G: Closed as a Bear­ish Inside Bar
  • H: closed fail­ing auc­tion leav­ing a sell­ing tail in G

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment, H4 base demand with­in val­ue might not want to get touched and thus LTF demand at VAH might hold as a bounce point.
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish Price action with IB exten­sion up (momen­tum, might be less like­ly), sus­tained auc­tion. A pos­si­ble could also be a test of val­ue below with­out clos­ing with­in, into fail­ing auc­tion and move high­er form­ing a Neu­tral Day.
  • Con: clean arrival at D1 C‑sup
  • 90% cor­rect
  • Price extend­ed below IB not tak­ing out LTF demand although got close. Formed a poor low in E but took out it out by 1 TPO in the same peri­od. Then pro­ceed­ed to fail auc­tion in F.

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I did well to align myself that if there was a down­wards move I should wait for a con­fir­ma­tion of val­ue accep­tance. Even then an accep­tance would have been a tricky play to say the least due to LTF demand at VAL as the next obsta­cle. Although this would have meant a retrace­ment to H4 base lev­el and could there­fore con­sti­tute a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. 

What was the play of the day?

Return to val­ue although no good set­up as even a LTF entry would have been at the time there was a poor low. It is in my expe­ri­ence that this more than not gets tak­en out. I believe the actu­al play might be the move hap­pen­ing now late in the ses­sion which I will review in my Next Day Analy­sis (NDA).

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was right here for the most part although not a good set­up to enter on. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

Not real­ly. If there was I think the best option was one at the close of G but even so that was an invert­ed ham­mer so not the best of setups. LTF didn’t have the best price com­bo either. 

What would a price action exit rule have done?

N.A.

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

N.A.

What would time-based have done?

N.A.

What could I have done better?

I did well to stay out and observe time­frame transitions. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades taken. 

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 Three Inside Down in the mak­ing, D1 DBD
  • Pre­ferred: Per­haps a test of LTF sup­ply before clos­ing strong bear­ish­ly, IB exten­sion down, prob­a­bly low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day. Oth­er­wise a test of VAL with near­by D1‑C‑S 1738
  • Con: D1 demand
  • 100% cor­rect
  • Price extend­ed over IB dur­ing E, with F near­ing VAL, then pro­ceed­ed to form a Bear­ish Inside Bar dur­ing G with a failed auc­tion in H. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

Basi­cal­ly both Hypos played out where Hypo 2 start­ed off the ses­sion and Hypo 1 brought it back down. I did well here. 

What was the play of the day?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty accord­ing to Hypo 1 and 2. Hypo 2 start­ed off by form­ing a M15 con­sol­i­da­tion at M30 QLo and mov­ing high­er to extend over IB. Lat­er on Hypo 1 brought it back down. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Both hypos played out. Hap­py with that. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

Yes there was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I did not take it. At first I was dis­tract­ed with GBPNZD and then I had to take a call so did not man­age to get a trade in.

What would a price action exit rule have done?

I have tak­en into my play­book both hypos. 1.5R on hypo 2, 1R (in over­lap noise)

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Stan­dard SL place­ment not cut­ting through formations. 

What would time-based have done?

Less than 1 on hypo 2, 0.5R on hypo 1. 

What could I have done better?

I could have actu­al­ly tak­en the trades although like I said I was pre­oc­cu­pied with work out­side of trad­ing. From now on I will turn off my phone so that I can’t be dis­tract­ed. Customers/suppliers can wait.

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades.

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did well here. 

What did I learn today?

That I can be very well aligned with the mar­ket but if price action doesn’t sat­is­fy an entry I can just stay out and watch the mar­ket do what I hypoth­e­sized it would do. Very well done here. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Be a stu­dent of the markets.

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Wor­ry about tak­ing trades. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did well. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210324

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210324

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