23 Mar How did I trade today? 20210323
Summary: Profit on a bad trade is probably the worst to establish bad habits.
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Only trade the main account
- Focus on time-based exits
- Don’t look at M5 chart unless within the last half hour of trading window
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Bad Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Bad Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3
Summary
- GBPNZD
- IB: Traded higher
- C: Closed as a Bear Engulf extending below IB
- D: Short: 1.95430 SL 1.95690 TP 1.94940 (2R)
- Reasons: hypo 2 large imbalance at the open nearby W1 supply.
- M15 closed as a doji, could go either way, price did make LLs but if price reverses it could just be a buying tail
- Closed making LLs although no real momentum behind the move
- E: Closed position at 0.4R as price is going very slow and due to price having taken out supply as well as lots of LTF demand underneath as well as M30 VWAP in UT I decided to pocket some profits. Not happy with this though as this is probably just a low/medium initiative day. I have had a few trades hit SL and I just wanted to get a win and did not follow my exit rule. Will follow the trade to see what it would have done if I hadn’t taken the trade off. I got a bit jumpy due to the supply that got taken out as well as the ADR got exhausted during Asia as well as hitting a Monthly Base supply level (although too large of a timeframe probably to warrant an immediate continuation). Although I believe it is more likely that this will continue down but I still took the trade off.
- M15 closed as a Bull Engulf at IB low, slightly within
- Closed as consolidation with longer selling wick, M15 closed pulling back to newly formed c‑dem but not within demand.
- F: Closed within IB leaving a buying wick and tail after reacting off M30 VWAP in UT. 6 TPO Tail needs to be confirmed.
- G: Tail confirmed, price closed higher within IB
- H: Closed as an Inside Bar no rotation through IB (yet), H4 equal-long wicked doji (neutral)
- GOLD
- IB: IB closed as a Bear Engulf in B
- C: Closed as a bullish inside bar
- D: closed trading higher within IB
- E: Closed as a Bear Engulf
- Too close to VAH, LTF supply, mid M30 swing and market in range, although at H4 QHi
- F: Traded lower but without extension, closed as an Inside Bar.
- G: Extended over IB but closed within again leaving a long selling wick
- H: closed above IB, H4 closing higher but still below H4 QHi.
GBPNZD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
- Narrative: Open sentiment, W1 supply
- Preferred: Strong Bearish price action with IB extension down.
- Con: Larger time frame bullish sentiment. Trend H4,D1 up.
- 90% correct
- There was no sustained auction down. Price extended below during C with a slight continuation in D to then consolidate and reverse after reacting off M30 VWAP in UT.
How accurate was my assessment of market context? Was I aligned with market narrative through my hypos? What were the circumstances of the developing narrative? How did they develop according to DTTZ?
I was a bit confused due to Asia exhausting ADR. Because Asia had gone up and taken out W1 supply creating a huge imbalance at London open I thought it would be more probable for a mean reversion. Which kinda came but only to fail auction and continue further up.
What was the play of the day?
A slight mean reversion that turned into a failed auction to then continue the trend.
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
I would say Hypo 2 played out first to then transition into Hypo 1 outside of my trading window.
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
I did take an opportunity based on hypo 2 mean reversion and pocketed 0.4R.
What would a price action exit rule have done?
A M15 bull Engulf would have have scratched the trade at about 0R.
How was SL placement and Sizing?
SL placement wasn’t the best due to IB being somewhat wide (over 50 pips). But Due to expecting a momentum trade (which never came) it was okay for the SL the be cutting through the formation.
What would time-based have done?
Would have gotten stopped out in G. ‑1R.
What could I have done better?
I feel I should not have been in the trade to begin with due to price having taken out W1 supply and hitting a Monthly supply base level and ‘initial’ larger timeframe bullish sentiment. My hypo 1 was more plausible although during my trading window it was a mean reversion that somewhat played out. I got lucky breaking my exit rules. At the time of writing this K TPO has formed a Neutral Day and extended over IB.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
I felt a bit that something was off. I saw price faltering and did look on M5. When I saw the profile struggling to make LLs I thought to cut it. I say struggling now in hindsight. At the time I was just jonesing to take some profits after having multiple stops being hit in the last few trades. If I had waited for an exit rule I would have either scratched or had a SL hit again. This doesn’t take away the fact that honestly I did not have a good exit rule that I acted on. I acted out of fear of losing profits. This does tell me that I should not have been in the trade to begin with for reasons outlined above. I will review on the weekend.
GOLD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 — Return to Value
- Narrative: Open sentiment, D1 narrative
- Preferred: Strong Bullish Price action with IB extension up (momentum) sustained auction. Perhaps more likely an IB extension down with price action reversal at VAH followed by a failed auction.
- Con: Trading right into D1 supply, New H4 supply
- 70% correct
- There was no real strong bullish price action and it looked more like my hypo 2 responsive activity playing out. Watching paint dry. But there was finally an extension above IB in G.
How accurate was my assessment of market context? Was I aligned with market narrative through my hypos? What were the circumstances of the developing narrative? How did they develop according to DTTZ?
I did well to understand that there was not much of a likelihood for a move to happen so I stayed out.
What was the play of the day?
I don’t think I could have played any move on the day.
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
Yes I was.
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
There was no real opportunity and no I did not take any.
What would a price action exit rule have done?
N.A.
How was SL placement and Sizing?
N.A.
What would time-based have done?
N.A.
What could I have done better?
Did well today
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
No trades taken.
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
I did well. I was focused and mostly unemotional. When the trade took so damn long to go in my favor I must have subconsciously known that something was up as 1) price usually goes in my favor quite quickly 2) the thesis was wrong.
What did I learn today?
Thet the jumpiness I experience can be seen as a trigger to perhaps understand why I am uncomfortable in a trade. Usually, when I take a good trade I seldom experience this. But then again in recent trades I have due to having had a few losses and currently trading a bigger account.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
Take trades based on my plan and build up more experience. I feel just now trading a bigger account forces me to be more present and even knowledgeable on the reasons for taking my trades.
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
Worry about hitting a SL. Rules are Rules. If stop is hit then the rule is to find out if it was a good trade that just simply didn’t go my way or should I have not been in the trade to begin with.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
I feel a did poorly due to taking profits early even though it did play out well. At the time that is not the main reason why I took profits too early.
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here:
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