How did I trade today? 20210322

Sum­ma­ry: Don’t need to trade. Sit and observe. 

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only trade the main account
  • No trades taken
• Focus on time-based exits
  • No trades taken
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last half hour of trad­ing window
  • No trades taken

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: Trad­ed up
  • C: closed with­in IB after extend­ing 4 TPOs. dis­tance to VAL makes for a sub­par prof­it tar­get. Plus there is a new­ly formed H4 C‑sup right there. 
  • D: closed as a spin­ning top after  form­ing a poor high. 
  • E: Closed as an Evening Star con­firm­ing the poor high, fail­ing auction
  • F: That’s weird. Sud­den­ly the pro­file changed to show a 1 TPO exten­sion in D above C thus not show­ing a poor high anymore. 
    • Price extend­ed below IB form­ing a Neu­tral Day
  • G: Now a poor low is form­ing, the poor high is back on, very weird.
  • H: Closed as a spin­ning top, H4 Bear Engulf not tak­ing out H4 demand

• GOLD
  • IB: M30 DBD
  • C: Extend­ed slight­ly above IB then closed as an inside bar with long sell­ing wick
  • D: Closed as a doji with longer sell­ing wick
  • E: Closed as an Evening Star
  • F: Closed as a Bull Engulf
  • G: Extend­ed over IB again clos­ing above
  • H: Closed as a Drag­on­fly doji, H4 Inside Bar at H4 50MA in UT

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: LTF sup­ply at H4 QHi and mod­er­ate imbal­ance open below
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish price action with IB exten­sion down, or IB exten­sion up with price rever­sal at VAL (near­by H4 c‑sup) into failed auction
  • Con: Due to trad­ing right into demand will be look­ing at a low/medium ini­tia­tive trad­ing day.
  • 100% cor­rect
  • C extend­ed above IB with D form­ing a doji and E com­plet­ing an Evening Star. Fol­lowed by an exten­sion down in F form­ing a Neu­tral Day and slight con­tin­u­a­tion in G. H closed as an Inside Bar could go either way although due to the new­ly formed H4 Bear Engulf that demand can get tak­en out. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I did well here. I hypoth­e­sized a high­er like­li­hood for a con­tin­u­a­tion through return to val­ue. What hap­pened was a failed auc­tion high to neu­tral day. Trade loca­tion wasn’t the best as it was mid M30 swing although the rever­sal came right at a retest of H4 QHi thus was valid.

What was the play of the day?

Return to Val­ue. A mod­er­ate imbal­ance with open with­in range. Price fail­ing auc­tion to the top through an Evening star and con­se­quent fol­low-through form­ing a Neu­tral Day. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

I did well as hypo 1 played out. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I did not take it. I want­ed to take it easy today and I would be trad­ing right into demand and did not want to risk it. 

What would a price action exit rule have done?

Price action exit came at the close of H in the form of a M15 Bull Engulf. Although a rever­sal at G TPO on M5 could be con­sid­ered an exit as well. 1R profit. 

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

SL place­ment would have been okay. Entry around .xx56 SL at .xx81.

What would time-based have done?

1R prof­it. 

What could I have done better?

I did well to stay out as I want­ed to take it easy. When­ev­er I don’t quite feel like trad­ing I know it is best to stay out. Bet­ter safe than sorry. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I feel good. Noth­ing special. 

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 con­sol­i­da­tion being at the bot­tom of the range, M30 QLo
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auc­tion to val­ue edge
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment
  • 100% cor­rect
  • Price extend­ing in C then pulling back and the move final­ly came dur­ing F form­ing a bull engulf and G extend­ing fur­ther above IB.

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I did well here. The move came at the end of F form­ing a bull engulf. 

What was the play of the day?

M30 Swing Rever­sal in line with D1 con­sol­i­da­tion with price trad­ing at the bot­tom. Price con­sol­i­dat­ed with­in M30 QLo at W1/H4 C‑dems and final­ly extend­ed above QLo towards val­ue edge. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Hypo 1 played out. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty but due to me want­i­ng to take it easy today I did not want to take a trade. It is usu­al­ly for the best when I feel like not trading. 

What would a price action exit rule have done?

M15 Bear Engulf in G would have net­ted 0.2R

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Entry off the M30 bull engulf in F would have been the best as SL was placed slight­ly with­in the for­ma­tion. An entry off M15 would have been bet­ter. That entry would have been .71 with SL at .83 which would have been okay.

What would time-based have done?

0.6R. Over­lap noise cut off would have been slight­ly over 1.5R. 

What could I have done better?

I did well today to stay out. I did not feel much like trad­ing so I just sat here and observed. Noth­ing wrong with that. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I feel good. Noth­ing special.

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did well today although being some­what tired. Although cog­ni­tive­ly I do feel I was not the sharpest. Hence the need to not trade today. Always lis­ten to yourself. 

What did I learn today?

I learned that Open sen­ti­ment and trade loca­tion often guide the trad­ing direc­tion. Fur­ther­more that my read­ing of price action is pret­ty good. Also, to always lis­ten to myself when I don’t feel like trad­ing I sim­ply don’t trade. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Lis­ten to myself. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Doubt myself 🙂

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

Yes I did. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210322

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210322

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