19 Mar How did I trade today? 20210319
Summary: Mind your IB extensions
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Only trade the main account
- Did well here
- Focus on time-based exits
- I did well here although on the first trade my SL got hit.
- 2nd trade I initiated in the last hour so was looking for LTF price action to warrant an exit. Which did come and I got out.
- Don’t look at M5 chart unless within the last hour of trading window
- I did well here
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Fair Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 2
Summary
- GBPNZD
- IB: Traded higher
- C: Extended 1 TPO above IB. Closed as a Bear Engulf with slightly longer buying wick. Not closing below M30 QHi. Hesitating to go short as newly formed M30 and H1 c‑dem is still in the way and it would mean a neutral day if we do extend below. Another reason is LTF trading flat around VWAP indicating some form of balancing. Time will tell if I am wrong.
- D: Pullback to M15 Supply and I went short
- Short: 1.94069 SL 1.94319 TP 1.93547
- Decided to go short anyway as mean reversion criteria was met. 1 TPO extension above followed by a bear engulf failing auction. H4 DBD within H4 QHi.
- Will wait for D to close lower otherwise look for an exit.
- Closed as an Inside Bar with long buying wick. Definitely not a good sign. H1 hammer. M15 Bull ENgulf on the hour. Gonna stick with the trade to battle the grasshopper and focus on a time-based exit or a LTF PA exit in the last hour if my SL doesn’t get hit by then of course. Which it looks like it will.
- E: Traded higher and took out my SL ‑1R. Thinking it is possible we might see a selling tail before reversing down. If so I will try another short. If the move seems sustained I will look for a potential entry long although.
- E closed higher at IB edge, M15 inverted hammer. Waiting for selling tail to be confirmed at next TPO close otherwise we are looking at a sustained auction. Albeit low/medium initiative activity day.
- F: made a poor high. Expecting it to get taken out. And it did close making HHs.
- G: Closed as an inverted hammer making HHs
- H: Closed as a Three Inside Down leaving a Selling Tail in G and failing auction.
- GOLD
- IB: Closed trading above Value
- C: closed extending down leaving a long buying wick and closing as a slight Bull Engulf (weak)
- D: Traded and closed higher within IB
- E: Closed as an Inside bar , M15 consolidation possible DBD
- F: M15 DBD waiting for a pullback for a better entry as M15 VWAP is in the way price might see some reaction. If filled I’ll wait for a possible M30 Three Outside Down to be formed.
- Price ran off and is nearing newly formed H4 C‑dem.
- Closed down after extending below
- G: traded slightly lower returning to structure possibly leaving a buying tail.
- M5 reversal, transition to M15 bull engulf
- Long 1737480 SL 1733.960 TP 1744.460
- Waiting for H to take out single prints in F
- H: Took out demand closing as M5 Bear Engulf and proceeded lower so took of the trade at ‑0.5R. Done for the day.
- M15 closed as an Inside Bar with long buying wick. Possibility for price to move higher as intended.
- Time-based cut off would have been ‑0.2R
- Closed as a consolidation with longer buying wick, H4 Inside bar with longer selling wick.
- I: indeed price closed as Bull Engulf and is trading higher has we speak although a poor low was formed. Price would not have taken out SL and at I close would have netted a mere 0.3R
GBPNZD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation / Return to Value
- Narrative: D1 Bull Engulf, Larger timeframe bullish sentiment. Weak overhead supply.
- Preferred: Strong Bullish price action, IB extension up (momentum) sustained auction taking out LTF supplies.
- Con: Possible D1 Phase 3 although could be redistribution due to D1 200MA and larger timeframe bullish sentiment. Price at H4 UKC in R.
- 70% correct
- There was no strong bullish price action. In fact there was a Bear Engulf before the actual move. Making HHs followed by G and H completing a THree Inside Down but leaving a H4 Bull Engulf with long selling wick.
How accurate was my assessment of market context? Was I aligned with market narrative through my hypos? What were the circumstances of the developing narrative? How did they develop according to DTTZ?
I first hypothesized that at these levels with the open sentiment we could see a mean reversion of sorts. When C closed as a Bear Engulf I was hesitant at first to go short. Especially, with last Wednesday having a similar setup actually moving into my favor (but I grasshoppered out) so I thought I’d give it another try. Went in short although this time C had extended 1 TPO above IB but then closed as a Bear Engulf I theorized a failed auction and thought we could see a continuation to the move down. Sadly this was not the case and SL got taken out.
I did well to stick with the trade along the lines of my time-based exit rule. I believe more and more that this will in the end net me a bigger profit than not.
What was the play of the day?
Trend Continuation / Return to Value. Price had extended 1 TPO above IB before closing as a bear engulf in C. To which price then reversed again and traded higher which lead me to believe that a selling tail had to be made around these mean reversion levels before taking the short as IB had already extended 1 TPO above IB. Which is something you do not want to see when planning a short. Last Wednesday did not have this orderflow event happen. Live and learn.
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
It was Hypo 1 although I gave it 70% due to price actually looking to set up for a mean reversion or reversal after all it just needed some more room to do so as indicated by the extension up and consequent failed auction later on in the session leaving a selling tail. Going long would have been troublesome as well trading straight into supply. So even though Hypo 1 is what played out during my trading window I believe Hypo 2 is actually the play of the day.
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
I took the wrong opportunity but I did take it.
What would a price action exit rule have done?
My SL got hit
What would time-based have done?
My SL got hit
What could I have done better?
I could have theorized that the extension above IB indicated for more upside and should have waited for more confluence in terms of a selling tail on the profile.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
I felt good actually. I remembered the calmness of this particular exercise taught to me by Dee. As a grasshopper the first rule she gave me was to initiate a trade and by whatever means let the trade do what it does and take the trade off until my time-based exit. I remember how I was calm and could be objective. I noticed that in the long run the trades were good and that there was no reason to try and ‘manage’ the trades. If you are aligned with the market, let the market do its thing. So this will be (it is already actually) my main goal for next month. This month was taking trades on my main account which I am doing and have no issues with (as I am trading a larger fund). I don’t have issues because it’s just a % risk that I take. Doesn’t matter the size of the account so that is a plus. I also have a better understanding of what my P/L would have been if I had enforced the time-based rule earlier but this is why I have to do these things in real life. Document and learn from them so I can make the right adjustments as I go along.
GOLD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 — Balancing Market
- Narrative: open within
- Preferred: play off nearby LTF SD and ADR levels
- 100% correct
- Price traded from within VAH to above it without an IB extension and continued to consolidate. To then return back into Value in a big Three Outside Down.
How accurate was my assessment of market context? Was I aligned with market narrative through my hypos? What were the circumstances of the developing narrative? How did they develop according to DTTZ?
I did well to understand the narrative. When I saw LTF price action setting up for a potential value rejection failure move back into value I waited for a M15 close as I had just lost the trade on GBPNZD. When M15 closed as a Bear Engulf I waited for a pullback to new c‑sup to go short but alas this pullback never came and price extended quickly further below.
What was the play of the day?
A Value Rejection Failure playing off M30 QHi and nearby ADR 0.5 high. LTF price action eventually printing a bear engulf that transitioned into a M15 bear engulf with no 2nd chance entry.
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
Yes I was correct on the outcome.
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
I failed to take the short as outlined above. Then when price moved below to H4 C‑dem, based on the Day Trading Time Zone I gathered an entry based on M5 was warranted and saw price consolidating and moving higher so I went long. Waited for a transition to M15 bull engulf which did come only to be taken out again so I cut the trade. Did well on the exit. Not so much on the entry as I could have waited for the correct DTTZ to kick in before basing my entry on. Lesson learned and adjusted my entry rules.
What would a price action exit rule have done?
I did take a price action exit rule which was a M5 bear engulf + taking out LTF demand which is something you don’t want to see when going long. However, due to me being too early the trade was actually wrong. I should have waited longer before taking my entry (if any).
What would time-based have done?
I would have lost ‑0.2R instead of ‑0.5R. Extra half hour within overlap noise would have netted 0.3R.
What could I have done better?
I should have waited longer before taking my entry (if any) at the right DTTZ.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
I felt okay actually. I felt good that I had taken the trade even after a loss. Then when I visualized what should happen but then saw that it wasn’t happening I cut the trade without a flinch.
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
I think I did well today. Cognitively I did well. Been doing well lately as I am eating better and focusing on a diet again. Been good the last few weeks. Emotionally I did well too. Even though I lost ‑1.5R I feel I am finally forced to really grasp the concepts and learn. Before trading the smaller account I feel I was taking trades easier without perhaps fully grasping the why. Then they, more then not, would happen to pan out. Now that I am more conscious about my trades it forces me to actually understand the narrative. So that I can be even more okay with the nature of the probabilities and the extent of my own knowledge and the areas I still lack. Great job today.
What did I learn today?
That I still need some tweaking done and that I perhaps tried to do too much too fast as is my nature. Hence the almighty Mystic Dee had put me on a time-based rule exit which I am going to focus on once more (already started but it is really hitting home).
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
Stay the path and improve day by day. Tomorrow I will go over the trades of the week and review what I could have done better.
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
Worry about making trades. Good or bad they are revealing. Can always learn from winners and losers.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
I did well today.
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here:
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