How did I trade today? 20210317

Sum­ma­ry: Grasshop­pered out of a fine the­sis play

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only trade the main account
  • Did well here
• Focus on time-based exits
  • Fucked up here
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window
  • Fucked up here as well.

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Bad Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Fair Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 4

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: IB trad­ed high­er test­ing H4 QHi.
  • C: Closed as a Bear Engulf, M15 Evening star with slight follow-through
  • D: Short 1.93702 SL 1.94001 TP 1.93101
    • Open sen­ti­ment, M30 Bear Engulf clos­ing below H4 QHi, mon­i­tor­ing for IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auction. 
    • Tak­ing a long time for any con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. Watch­ing like hawk for any rever­sal signs. 
    • M15 Bull Engulf with buy­ing wick closed at ‑0.2R
    • Closed trad­ing down, trade would have been at 0.3R, H1 Bear­ish Inside Bar, messy M15 DBD
  • E: test­ed DPOC and trad­ed low­er test­ing IB low extend­ing 2 TPOs below then closed neutral. 
  • F: Formed a poor low then pro­ceed­ed to take it out slight­ly after. Price is very slow and still has to deal with M30 VWAP in UT with LTF demand there so there might be more push­back. Look­ing at a low/initiative activ­i­ty day. Closed below IB as DBD although bove M30 VWAP in UT.
  • G: Trade would have reached 1.2R before return­ing and clos­ing as a Bull­ish Inside bar with long buy­ing wick
  • H: Closed with­in IB as Three­Out­side Up with a lit­tle sell­ing wick

• GOLD
  • IB: Trad­ed low­er, B closed as an Inside Bar
  • C: Closed as bear engulf with equal-long buy­ing and sell­ing wick just above VAH
  • D: Closed as a doji with longer sell­ing wick
  • E: Closed as a Bull Engulf test­ing IB high
  • F: Respon­sive Activ­i­ty continued
  • G: Respon­sive Activ­i­ty continued
  • H: Respon­sive Activ­i­ty continued

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, price with­in H4/M30 QHi,
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish price action, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion. Low/medium ini­tia­tive per­haps due to lots of LTF demands.
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame still bullish 
  • 100% cor­rect
  • A moved high­er with a neu­tral bar in B fol­lowed by a Bear Engulf in C and con­se­quent DBD before revers­ing in G.

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I did well here that based on the open sen­ti­ment and con­se­quent rever­sal through bear engulf in C that we could see some form of a mean reversion. 

What was the play of the day?

A mean rever­sion. Trade loca­tion at H4 QHi, M30 bear engulf clos­ing below H4 QHi in line with open sen­ti­ment there was a move lower. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

I was right on my first hypo indeed. Although price was a bit messy and slow. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty and I did take it. Although I mis­man­aged the trade. I had tak­en a short off the C TPO clos­ing as a bear engulf but then when price was tak­ing what seemed for­ev­er to move low­er I was look­ing for a rea­son out. This I thought came in the form of a slight M15 bull engulf with buy­ing wick and I got out at ‑0.2R. Price pro­ceed­ed low­er through DBD but was test­ing new­ly formed c‑sups con­stant­ly. I was con­sid­er­ing to get back in but thought by the amount of test­ing price was doing that per­haps it would reverse any­one and I would lose more than the ‑0.2R. When I real­ized price was indeed mov­ing low­er I did well to not act out of FOMO and enter in on a bad loca­tion risk­ing poten­tial­ly too much. 

What would a price action exit rule have done?

Dur­ing G there was a M5 con­sol­i­da­tion plus bull engulf which would have net­ted the trade at about 1R. This same price action would have been a good entry on a rever­sal to go long. At time-based cut off this would have net­ted anoth­er 1R. I doc­u­ment­ed both into my play­book. I didn’t take the rever­sal as I had to deal with oth­er things IRL. 

What would time-based have done?

Time based cut-off for the mean rever­sion trade would have net­ted 0.1R only. 

What could I have done better?

I could have stayed with the trade since the M15 bull engulf wasn’t that strong to begin with. I feel I was jumpy about tak­ing the trade due to price pre­ced­ing the entry in B being some­what neu­tral. This com­bined with H4 bull­ish sen­ti­ment, and it being a FOMC day, I thought there could be grounds for more upside negat­ing the bear engulf. The M15 bull engulf was also not on the hour so that is anoth­er thing I failed to take into con­sid­er­a­tion. All in all I feel I did well to take the trade and now hav­ing paid ‑0.2R for some infor­ma­tion and con­fir­ma­tion on my choice and valid­i­ty of my trad­ing loca­tions being good. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I felt jumpy at first and then quick­ly act­ed on it and cut the trade as men­tioned above. After­wards I felt good not being in the trade and I felt good not get­ting back in even though I was think­ing about ways I could get back in. The prox­im­i­ty to M30 VWAP in UT also gave a sub­par prof­it tar­get so didn’t want to take my chance. I had my chance and I blew it. On to the next. 

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 sup­ply, D1 VWAP in DT
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly accep­tance (coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion down) with quick follow-through
  • Con: medi­um time­frame bull­ish sentiment.
  • 80% cor­rect
  • There was no ear­ly accep­tance. Instead a lot of con­sol­i­da­tion (after extend­ing slight­ly below dur­ing D) even­tu­al­ly form­ing a neu­tral day dur­ing H to then drop hard in I TPO rotat­ing through value. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I did well here to stay out as there was no good oppor­tu­ni­ty. Even based on hypo 1 going long would have been risky long­ing into supply. 

What was the play of the day?

Val­ue Accep­tance. Although this came very late into the ses­sion dur­ing TPO I. and wasn’t much of an accep­tance but a crazy drop rotat­ing through in one blow. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Hypo 2 val­ue accep­tance played out. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

Not based on my entry and risk parameters. 

What would a price action exit rule have done?

N.A.

What would time-based have done?

N.A.

What could I have done better?

I did well here.

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken.

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I strug­gled at first due to rea­sons men­tioned ear­li­er. Usu­al­ly when I am in a good trade I don’t get jumpy too much. I didn’t like the exact cir­cum­stances but I know that my ini­tial the­sis was right. All good. Live and learn. On to the next. 

What did I learn today?

That my trade loca­tions and sen­ti­ment read­ing is most­ly on point. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Stick with my ini­tial the­sis and wait for a con­fi­dent exit rule. Not based on a flim­sy M15 price action. If my SL gets hit it just gets hit no prob­lem there. Fol­low­ing my rules is what keeps me in the game. Grasshop­pered today. No sug­ar­coat­ing it. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Wor­ry about the out­come. If a trade is worth tak­ing it is worth obey­ing exit rules just as much. I am usu­al­ly good at this but some­how today I fucked up. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did not as men­tioned above. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210317

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210317

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